弱信号识别研究综述:寻找微弱的未来信号

Searching for Weak Future Signals:A Review of Weak Signal Identification

作为提早预判未来而减弱不确定性的一种重要方式和手段,弱信号识别对于行为主体规避风险、把握战略主动具有重要的意义,现已受到学术界的广泛关注。对弱信号识别的相关文献进行综述,能够厘清研究现状、发现研究重点、认清研究方向,为相关科研人员提供参考。第一,梳理弱信号及相关概念的界定和发展脉络;第二,总结弱信号识别研究的相关理论;第三,解析弱信号识别的研究目标和数据来源;第四,梳理和讨论弱信号研究方法的适用性;第五,提出弱信号识别研究的发展方向。文献综述的结果表明,目前弱信号的定义尚未统一,识别理论尚未成熟,研究数据多源,研究类型丰富,研究方法较为多样,识别结果的评估和检验尚不充分,这为学界研究弱信号提供了方向。

As an important prediction method that reduces uncertainty,weak signals identification is heipful for avoiding risk and grasping opportinity,and has been of interest to academics.This article aims to clarify the research status,determine the research focus,identify the research direction,and provide reference for relevant scientific researchers by summarizing the relevant research literature of weak signal recognition.First,the definition and development of weak signals and related concepts are determined.Second,relevant theories are summarized.Third,the research target and data source are analyzed.Additionally,the usability of the methods is clarified.Finally,the perspective direction focused on weak signal identification research is proposed.The literature review shows that weak signals and system identification theory lack universally accepted definitions,and although diversified methods have been used to identify weak signals from all types of data sources,the evaluation and test research remains insufficient.