数字经济发展与农民工城市留居意愿——人力资本异质性视角的分析

Digital Economy Development and Rural Migrant Workers' Willingness to Settle in Cities:Analysis from the Perspective of Human Capital Heterogeneity

将2012—2018年中国流动人口动态监测数据与北京大学数字普惠金融指数相匹配形成混合截面数据,本文在县域层面分析流入城市数字经济发展对农民工长期留城意愿的影响。工具变量估计结果表明,城市数字经济发展对农民工长期留居意愿具有正向影响。数字经济指数每提升一个标准差,农民工留城意愿增加10.3%。数字经济对留城意愿的促进作用存在人力资本异质性,对高人力资本农民工的影响较低人力资本农民工高1.3%。机制分析表明,支付便利性是人力资本异质性的主要原因。尽管数字经济发展引致城市劳动力需求结构偏向高人力资本农民工,但学习效应下低人力资本农民工更快的劳动生产率提升缩小了两类农民工的工资差距。本文为数字经济时代下农民工福祉问题与新型城镇化建设的讨论提供了新视角。

Matching the 2012-2018 CMDS data with the Peking University Digital Finance Index to form cross-sectional data,this paper analyzes the impact of digital economy development in inflow cities on migrant workers' long-term willingness to settle in cities at the county level.The instrumental variable estimation results show that cities' digital economy development positively affects migrants' willingness to settle.For one standard deviation increase in the digital economy index,migrants' willingness to settle increased by 10.3%.We further find that the effect exhibits human capital heterogeneity.The effect of digital economy development on migrant workers with high human capital is 1.3% higher than that on low human capital migrants.Mechanism analysis shows that human capital heterogeneity is mainly explained by the difference in payment facilitation in two migrant groups.Although digital economy development leads the structure of urban labor demand biases toward high human capital migrant workers,faster productivity improvement of low human capital migrant workers through social learning narrows the wage gap.This paper provides a new perspective for discussing the well-being of migrant workers and the construction of new-type urbanization in the digital economy era.