煤矿顶板安全性、风险度与预案投资效益评估方法研究

Study on evaluation method of safety,risk degree and investment benefit of coal mine roof

煤矿矿井顶板事故发生概率及其危害程度的不确定性使得防治顶板事故非常困难。对煤矿顶板事故进行科学有效预防的难度在于没有科学的方法去量化风险因素,风险信息具有模糊性。为了有效减少煤矿顶板事故,更好地指导顶板事故防控政策的制定与实施。本文提出一种基于专家知识评估煤矿顶板安全性、顶板事件风险度和顶板应急预案投资效益的评估方法。利用专家调查法分析煤矿顶板事件发生的主要影响因素,对顶板事件安全性进行模糊综合评价;若煤矿顶板安全未达标,则进一步评估顶板风险事件发生的概率、严重程度和风险度;据此针对性地编制安全应急预案,并评估测算备选预案的经济效益,根据投资效益选择最优预案。实例分析表明这种利用专家知识的评估方法能够有效减少煤矿顶板事故。

The uncertainty of the occurrence probability and harm degree of coal mine roof accidents makes it very difficult to prevent and control roof accidents.The difficulty of scientific and effective prevention of coal mine roof accidents lies in the lack of scientific methods to quantify risk factors,and the risk information is fuzzy.In order to effectively reduce coal mine roof accidents and better guide the formulation and implementation of roof accident prevention and control policies.In this paper an evaluation method based on expert knowledge to evaluate coal mine roof safety,roof event risk and investment benefit of emergency plan.The main influencing factors of coal mine roof events are analyzed by expert investigation method,and the safety of roof events is evaluated by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.If the coal mine roof safety does not meet the standard,further evaluate the probability,severity and risk degree of roof risk events.Based on this,the safety emergency plan is prepared,the economic benefits of the alternative plan are evaluated and predicted,and the optimal plan is selected according to the investment benefits.The example analysis shows that the use of expert knowledge assessment method can effectively reduce the coal mine roof accident.