基于大气环流特征量和海温的水稻产量结构因素预报模型研究——以江苏省为例

Research on the prediction model of rice yield component factors based on atmospheric circulation characteristics and sea temperature:Taking Jiangsu Province as an example

根据500 hPa大气环流特征量能表征天气形势和控制天气条件的这一特性及海气相互作用原理,利用线性及单调曲线相关和最优化因子相关2种技术对环流和海温因子进行普查和对比分析。挑选一批与江苏省水稻(Oryza sativa L.)产量结构因素(有效穗数、每穗粒数和千粒重)相关极显著的大气环流特征量及海温因子;然后依次采用滑动相关检验法对普查得到的因子进行稳定性检验,采用主成分识别法对普查得到的因子进行独立性检验,确定与水稻产量结构因素相关显著、稳定并且相对独立的大气环流特征量及海温因子作为预报因子;最后基于最小二乘法建立了江苏省水稻产量结构因素动态预报的环流及海温模型,模型拟合效果好,可以投入业务使用。

Based on the characteristic of the 500 hPa atmospheric circulation characteristic that could characterize the weather situation and control the weather conditions,and the principle of air-sea interaction,the two techniques of linear and monotonic curve correlation and optimization factor correlation were used to conduct census and comparative analysis on circulation and sea temperature factors.A batch of factors of atmospheric circulation characteristics and sea temperature that were extremely significantly related to the yield component factors(effective panicle number,grain number per panicle and thousand-grain weight)of rice(Oryza sativa L.)in Jiangsu Province were selected.Then,the stability of the factors obtained from the general survey was tested by the sliding correlation test,and the independence of the factors obtained from the general survey was tested by the principal component identification method.The factors of atmospheric circulation characteristics and sea temperature that were stable,independent and significantly related to the rice yield component factors were determined as the forecasting factors.Finally,based on the least squares method,circulation and sea temperature models for dynamic prediction of rice yield component factors in Jiangsu Province were established,the fitting effects of these models were good and could be put into business use.