我国省域金融稳定指数构建、时空变化与政策研究

Construction of China’s Provincial Financial Stability Index,Spatio-temporal Changes and Policy Research

我国金融风险管控的范畴逐渐下沉至区域和地方,因而厘清影响省域层面金融稳定的关键指标对维护金融稳定具有重要意义。利用熵值法构建2015—2020年的我国省域金融稳定指数,并在时空上对比各省指标权重和指数的变化趋势,从而得出省域金融稳定差异来源。研究表明:省域金融稳定状况呈现由“中间低—四周高”向“中部集聚”迁移的空间格局;各地区风险因素总体集中在省级地方政府债务负担率和企业部门杠杆率;各地区的金融发展水平和金融稳定程度呈现负相关趋势;东北地区的金融稳定指数可能存在地缘性风险辐射;空间分级后影响同一层级金融稳定指数的因素集中于地方政府债务、银行业流动性和工业企业负债3个指标;时间序列上影响指数均值和离散程度的指标为省级地方政府债务负担率和上海银行间同业拆借利率波动率。基于以上结论,从宏观、区域、省域层面提出具有针对性的政策建议。

The scope of financial risk control in China is gradually sinking to the regional and local provinces,thus clarifying the key indicators affecting financial stability at the provincial level is important for maintaining fi⁃nancial stability.This paper uses the entropy value method to construct China’s provincial financial stability index from 2015 to 2020,and compares the trend of indicator weights and indexes in each province in time and space to derive the sources of provincial financial stability differences.The study shows that:provincial financial stability shows a spatial pattern of migration from“low in the middle to high around”to“central concentration”;provincial risk factors are generally concentrated in the provincial local government debt burden ratio and corporate sector le⁃verage ratio;the level of financial development and the degree of financial stability of each province show a nega⁃tive trend.Based on the above findings,this paper proposes a targeted approach from the macro,regional and pro⁃vincial levels.Based on the above findings,this paper puts forward targeted policy recommendations at macro,re⁃gional and provincial levels.