跨国经营企业披露了更多业绩预告修正公告吗?

Have Multinational Enterprises Disclosed More Earnings Forecasts Revision Announcement?

基于中国企业跨国经营的风险效应理论,文章以2007—2018年中国A股上市公司为样本,探讨跨国经营企业的业绩预告修正行为、动机及经济后果。研究发现,跨国经营企业对外披露业绩预告修正公告的概率与频率会显著增加。跨国经营企业披露业绩预告修正公告的目的在于提高业绩预告准确度,排除了跨国经营企业基于信息操纵与股价操纵动机、政策监管刚性与外部监督压力披露业绩预告修正公告的替代性假说。机制检验表明,跨国经营引发的产品市场风险、股价波动风险与海外诉讼风险,是促使上市公司增加业绩预告修正进而实现风险防范的重要原因。经济后果分析发现:(1)跨国经营企业增加业绩预告修正提高了分析师盈利预测准确度;(2)审计师确实因为跨国经营企业披露业绩预告修正公告投入了更多审计工作时长,但却并没有因此发表更多非标准无保留审计意见;(3)跨国经营企业增加业绩预告修正能够抑制投资者噪音交易,增加股价信息含量。文章研究结论对于引导资本市场正确、客观、理性认识跨国经营企业业绩预告修正行为具有实践意义。

Base on the risk effect theory of Chinese enterprises transnational operation,this paper takes Chinese A-share listed companies from 2007 to 2018 as a sample to explore the behavior,motivation,and economic consequences of multinational enterprises earnings forecasts revision.This study finds that the probability and frequency of earnings forecasts revision announcement disclosed by multinational enterprises will significantly increase.The announcement of earnings forecasts revision disclosed by multinational enterprises has significantly improved the accuracy of management earnings forecasts.This paper excludes the alternative hypothesis that multinational enterprises revise the disclosed earnings forecasts based on the motivation of information manipulation,stock price manipulation,the rigidity of policy supervision and external supervision and governance pressure.The mechanism tests show that the product market risk,stock price fluctuating risk and overseas litigation risk caused by transnational operation are the important reasons for the listed companies to increase the earnings forecasts revision.Further analysis shows that for multinational enterprises,earnings forecasts revision can effectively suppress investors noise trading and increase the information content of the stock price.The research conclusion of this paper has practical significance for guiding the capital market to correctly,objectively and rationally understand multinational enterprises behavior of earnings forecasts revision.