2000-2019年中国与发达国家预期寿命变化趋势比较研究

A Comparative Study of the Changing Trends in Life Expectancy Between China and Developed Countries:2000-2019

文章通过比较同时期和同预期寿命下中国与人类死亡率数据库中发达国家预期寿命增长速度的差异,分析2000-2019年中国预期寿命的变化趋势。同时,本文还研究了中国城乡之间和三大区域之间预期寿命增速的差异。研究结果表明,2000-2019年中国男性出生预期寿命增速由远高于发达国家逐渐下降到接近其增速,女性增速虽然也经历大幅下降但目前相对发达国家仍较快;中国男性老年人口预期寿命增速与发达国家相近,中国女性老年人口增速持续高于发达国家。未来中国预期寿命增速在短期内取决于儿童和成人、长期决定于老年人口死亡率改善对预期寿命增长贡献的大小。从城乡和三大区域来看,2000-2019年乡村预期寿命增速快于城市,城乡预期寿命差距持续减小;西部地区增速先快后慢于中部和东部地区,地区之间预期寿命差距呈先减小后缓慢扩大的趋势。西部地区全年龄死亡率的改善对提高全国预期寿命和减小地区之间预期寿命差距有重要影响。

This study examines the changes in life expectancy in China from 2000 to 2019 by comparing the pace of life expectancy increase between China and developed countries during the same period and under the same life expectancy level based on the data from the HMD.Additionally,the disparities in life expectancy growth rates between urban and rural areas and among the three regions in China is examined.The findings reveal that the increase of male life expectancy at birth in China has gradually declined from a pace significantly higher than that of developed countries to a rate closer to that of developed countries.While the increase of female life expectancy has also experienced a sharp decline and still has a larger span of life expectancy increase than that of developed countries.Similarly,the life expectancy increase of the male elderly population in China is close to that in developed countries,whereas the female elderly population continues to boast of higher increase than that of developed countries.The future increase of life expectancy in China depends on the increase of children and adults’life expectancy in short term and on the life expectancy increase of the elderly population through the improvement in the mortality rate of the elderly in the long term.Though there is still urbanrural disparities and regional differences in China,it is good to see that the increase of life expectancy in rural areas has outpaced that in urban areas and the rural-urban gap is keeping narrowed.However,the increase of life expectancy in the western region has experienced a faster increase in the earlier years,but begin to have a slower increase in the later years compared with the central and eastern regions with a gap-narrowing period and then a gap-expanding trend among the regions.The improvement of all-age mortality rates in the western region plays a significant role in the overall national increase and in the reduction of regional disparities of life expectancy in future.