不同情境下公共流域水资源动态一体化调控——以澜湄流域为例

Dynamic integrated regulation and control of water resources in public basins under different scenarios:A case study of Lancang-Mekong River Basin

从一体化视角出发针对不同的水文情境分析公共流域水资源调控能够应对复杂多变的气候变化。文章采用DPSIR模型构建流域水资源系统分析框架,并构建其系统动力学模型组从供需方面分析流域水资源系统的因果关系。以澜沧江−湄公河流域(文中简称澜湄流域)为例,运用系统动力学模型探究流域现在和未来的水资源供需情况,结合不同水文情景进行仿真分析,分析其演化过程和调控机制。结果显示:不同水文情景下流域内的水资源供需矛盾存在较大差异,结构性措施主要影响水资源的供给,非结构性措施主要影响水资源的需求。两种类型措施单独实施时都能够缓解流域内水资源短缺的压力,但对于较为极端的水文情景,流域未来仍会面临水资源短缺的压力。当结构性措施和非结构性措施同时实施时,流域内水资源的供给具有较大韧性,即使在较为极端的水文条件下仍然能够调节流域的水资源供需平衡,有利于流域内水资源的长期可持续发展。研究结果揭示了一体化视角下澜湄流域在不同水文情境下水资源的调控效果,以及各种调控措施对水资源供需的影响,将为澜湄流域水资源系统调控的联合行动奠定了基础。

The regulation of water resources in public basins is of great practical significance to deal with climate change and alleviate water resources conflicts.From the perspective of integration,according to different hydrological situations,the regulation of water resources in public basins can deal with complex and changeable climate change.This article uses DPSIR model to build the analysis framework of water resources system,and constructs its system dynamics model group to analyze the causal relationship of the water resource system from the perspective of supply and demand.Taking the Lancang-Mekong River Basin as an example,this article uses the system dynamics model to explore the current and future water resources supply and demand of the basin,analyzes its evolution process and regulation mechanism,and carries out simulation research combined with different hydrological scenarios.The results show that:there are great differences in the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources under different hydrological scenarios;Structural measures mainly affect the supply of water resources,while non structural measures mainly affect the demand of water resources.Both of the two types of measures can alleviate the pressure of water resources shortage,but for the more extreme hydrological scenarios,the pressure of water resources shortage will still appear in the future.When the structural measures and non structural measures are implemented at the same time,the supply of water resources has greater flexibility,even under the more extreme hydrological conditions,it can still adjust the balance between supply and demand of water resources,which is conducive to the long-term sustainable development of water resources in the basin.The research results reveal the regulation effect of water resources in different hydrological situations in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin from the perspective of integration,and the impact of various regulation measures on the supply and demand of water resources,which lays a foundation for the joint action of water resources regulation in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin.