美国货币政策对新兴市场的溢出效应:跨国企业渠道

US Monetary Policy Spillovers in Emerging Markets:The Multinational Corporate Channel

本文采用2013-2020年19个新兴市场国家的企业数据,研究了美国货币政策沿着跨国企业的海外子公司网络对新兴市场国家的溢出效应及微观机制。结果发现,美国货币政策紧缩(扩张)对新兴市场国家的美国关联企业投资的负向(正向)影响显著高于新兴市场国家本土企业。影响机制在于,跨国企业通过其内部资本市场与内部供应链,向新兴市场国家的美国关联企业传导美国货币政策溢出效应,从而影响美国关联企业的投资水平、收入增长、规模扩张与现金持有,并进一步沿着新兴市场国家的国内产业关联向其本土企业进行传导。本文补充了美国货币政策溢出效应在企业层面的传导渠道,为新兴市场国家更好地应对美国货币政策冲击提供了政策参考。

This paper explores the role of multinational enterprises(MNEs)in the cross-border transmission of US monetary policy.Using corporate data from 19 emerging markets(EMs),it finds that tightening(easing)US monetary policy has a significantly greater contractionary(expansionary)effect on real investment by US EM affiliates than their local counterparts.The paper identifies MNEs'internal capital markets and supply chain links as the two micro-level mechanisms driving the international propagation of global financial shocks within MNEs.It also finds similar effects on other corporate outcomes,including sales growth,employment growth and cash holdings,and a horizontal and vertical spillover effect on local firms through domestic production linkages.The paper provides micro-level channel evidence of US monetary policy spillovers to EMs and the role of MNEs in the cross-border transmission of financial shocks,which offers important policy implications for EMs to better respond to Fedshocks.