全球收入分配不平等:周期演进、驱动因素和潜在影响

Global Income Inequality:Cycles,Causes,and Potential Consequences

适逢世界百年未有之大变局,收入分配问题的重要性日益突出,也是未来各国实现经济增长的关键。1870年至今,国家内部不平等和国家间不平等分别呈现出先降后升和先升后降的特征。长期来看,收入不平等周期性变化的主要驱动力来自生产要素及其回报率的变化,如技术进步、教育、全球化和制度因素等,但这并不能解释顶端收入不平等的空前增长。进一步的解释包括政治游说、金融自由化、税收制度、劳动力市场和创新的影响。全球收入分配恶化对国际政治经济的潜在影响主要包括:一是发达经济体收入分配长期失衡会扭曲政治决策,从而引发信贷扩张和金融监管缺失,最终加大了爆发金融危机的风险;二是诱发民粹主义和逆全球化思潮;三是“长期性停滞”格局的形成。文章认为,提高发展中国家的金融包容性和税收覆盖性,加强发达国家的金融监管和税收强度有助于控制不平等的激增。

The issue of income distribution is growing more crucial at a time when the globe is experiencing unheard-of changes,and it is also the key to attaining economic growth in the future.The cyclical evolution,motivating forces,and probable effects of global income disparity are covered in this essay.Since 1870,there have been differences in the patterns of inequality within and between nations,with the former falling first and then rising and the latter growing first and then falling.The relative changes in production variables and their returns,such as advancements in technology,education,globalization,and institutional factors,over the long term serve as the drivers of the cyclical change in income disparity.But this does not explain the unprecedented growth of top income inequality.Further explanations include political lobbying,financial liberalization,the tax system,the labor market,and innovation.The three factors listed below are probable effects of a worsening global income distribution on world politics and the economy.First,long-term inequality in developed economies distort political decision-making,leading to credit expansion and lack of financial regulation,ultimately increasing the risk of financial crises.Second,it fosters trends toward populism and deglobalization.Third,it also encourages“secular stagnation”to form.As for countermeasures,strengthening financial regulation and tax intensity in wealthy nations as well as increasing financial inclusion and tax coverage in developing countries can assist in reducing the rise in inequality.