如何有效延退:延迟退休政策组合的年龄效应研究——基于OECD国家的模糊集定性比较分析

Research on the Age Effect of Delayed Retirement Policy Mix:An fsQCA Study Based on OECD Countries:How to Effectively Postpone Retirement

延迟退休是各国应对人口老龄化挑战的普遍政策选择,延退年龄效应受到具体政策设计与配套政策的叠加影响。为探究何种政策组合有助于达成预期延退年龄目标,促进有效延退,文章运用模糊集定性比较方法(fsQCA),分析了OECD 36个国家延迟退休政策组合的年龄效应,即对实际退休年龄与法定退休年龄差额的影响路径。研究发现了高年龄约束—低养老缴费、低养老缴费—高就业保障、低年龄约束—高就业保障和低年龄约束—低养老缴费四种有效路径。在借鉴OECD国家延迟退休政策组合设计的基础上,结合我国实际,文章建议通过灵活设计弹性退休制度、发挥养老金激励杠杆作用以及优化积极老龄劳动力市场与就业环境,注重政策配套组合,形成渐进式弹性延迟退休政策体系。

All nations frequently choose to postpone retirement in order to address the problem of an aging population.Specific policy design and enabling policies can affect the impact of postponing retirement.The current study uses the fuzzy set-based Qualitative Comparative Analysis Methods(fsQCA)to analyze the age effect of delayed retirement policy mixes in 36 countries of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development(OECD),with the goal of determining the influence path on the difference between the actual retirement age and the legal retirement age.The goal is to determine which combination of delayed retirement policies can help achieve the expected goal of delayed retirement.The study discovered four efficient routes:Low endowment contribution and high employment security are associated with high age restrictions,while low endowment contribution and low age restrictions are associated with low employment security.It is recommended to create a progressive flexible delayed retirement policy by designing a flexible retirement age,utilizing the leverage of the pension economy,maximizing the active aging labor market and employment environment,as well as paying attention to policy mix.This is based on the design of delayed retirement policy mix in OECD countries and China's reality.