数字经济背景下的国际税收解决方案:现状、博弈与展望

Digital Economy and International Taxation Solutions:Status Quo,Gaming andProspect

为了应对经济数字化的快速推进对现有国际税收规则的巨大冲击,在二十国集团(G20)的委托下,经济合作与发展组织(OECD)建立了包容性框架,提出了应对数字经济税收挑战的“双支柱”解决方案。该方案于2021年10月由包容性框架136个成员达成共识,并由G20领导人罗马峰会核准通过。其中,支柱一聚焦联结度和利润分配规则的修订,支柱二则聚焦制定全球最低税。但是,“双支柱”方案的真正实施还有赖于各税收辖区修改国内税法和税收协定。截至2023年6月底,“双支柱”方案在OECD层面和各税收辖区层面均有一定进展,其中支柱二的进展明显快于支柱一;同时,“双支柱”方案也面临重重挑战。这种现状是相关利益各方博弈的结果,市场国与居民国之间、低税国与高税国之间、经济体内部不同利益主体之间的博弈构成了博弈的主要类型。“双支柱”方案在未来一段时期的可能前景是,支柱二落地实施,而支柱一则由于在范围内主要大型跨国企业的居民国美国无法通过而搁浅,这将导致数字服务税等单边措施泛滥,重燃美国与市场国之间的贸易冲突。当单边措施及其伴生的贸易冲突足够激烈时,美国可能会重新考虑支柱一的实施,而以“多边数字服务税”替代支柱一也是一个可能的选项。

To cope with the huge impact of the rapid advancement of economic digitization on existing international taxation rules,OECD established,under the mandate of the G20,the Inclusive Framework on Base Erosion and Profit Shifting(IF)and proposed the Two-Pillar Solution to address the taxation challenges arising from the digital economy.The solution was agreed upon by 136 IF members and endorsed by G20 leaders at the Rome Summit in October 2021.Pillar One focuses on the revision of rules on nexus and profit distribution,while Pillar Two focuses on the creation of the global minimum tax.However,the implementation of the Two-Pillar Solution will also depend on the revision of domestic tax laws and tax treaties at all jurisdictions.By the end of June 2023,progress has been made both at the OECD level and at the level of all jurisdictions,with the progress of Pillar Two significantly faster than that of Pillar One.Meanwhile,the Two-Pillar Solution faces many challenges.It is a result of the gaming between stakeholders.The main types of gaming include that between market jurisdictions and residence jurisdictions,between low-tax jurisdictions and high-tax jurisdictions,and between players with different interests within an economy.A possible prospect of the Two-Pillar Solution is that Pillar Two is implemented,while Pillar One runs aground due to the failure in the US,which is home to the major in-scope multinationals;the failure will lead to the proliferation of unilateral measures,such as the digital service tax,and reignite trade conflicts between the US and market jurisdictions.If unilateral measures and their associated trade conflicts are severe enough,the US may reconsider the implementation of Pillar One,while replacing Pillar One with a multilateral digital services tax may also be a possible option.