基于K-means的印尼民航事件触发机制风险规律分析

Analysis of the Risk Pattern of Indonesian Civil Aviation Based on the Event Trigger Mechanism

航空安全信息的统计分析可以为航班的风险控制与安全预警提供有效支持。本文在收集整理印尼2007—2017年民航事件信息,基于事件触发机制的思想对其产生原因进行研究分析,运用统计分析法总结印尼民航不安全事件发生的主要原因及类型,同时采用K-means聚类分析法对飞行事故的风险等级进行评估,以发生次数和受伤人数作为观测集,得出跑道外接地的事故风险等级为高,冲出跑道的事故风险等级为中。在此分析基础上,提出相关的改进建议,并对我国处在特殊地理位置和气候条件的机场提供改进的角度和思路,对于同类型不安全事件频发的航空公司起到警示和预防作用。

Statistical analysis of aviation safety information can provide effective support for risk control and safety warning of flights.In this paper,after collecting and organizing the information of civil aviation incidents in Indonesia from 2007-2017,researching and analyzing the causes based on the idea of event triggering mechanism,using statistical analysis to summarize the main causes and types of unsafe incidents in Indonesian civil aviation,and also using K-means cluster analysis to evaluate the risk level of flight accidents,using the number of occurrences and the number of injuries as the observation set,it is concluded that the risk level of accidents with grounding outside the runway is high,and the risk level of accidents with runway runoff is medium.On the basis of this analysis,relevant improvement suggestions are proposed,and improvement perspectives and ideas are provided for airports in special geographical location and climatic conditions in China,which can serve as a warning and prevention for airlines with frequent occurrence of the same type of unsafeevents.