基于风险区划的内蒙古森林火灾保险费率厘定研究

Determination of Forest Fire Insurance Rates in Inner Mongolia Based onRegional Division of Risk

通过构建森林火灾保险评价体系,运用聚类分析方法和指数平滑方法,对内蒙古各盟市森林火灾风险等级和保险费率进行估算研究。结果表明:内蒙古各盟市森林火灾风险分为3个等级,高风险区域包括呼伦贝尔市和兴安盟,中风险区域包括呼和浩特市、通辽市、包头市、赤峰市、鄂尔多斯市、锡林郭勒盟和乌兰察布市,低风险区域包括乌海、巴彦淖尔市和阿拉善盟;高风险区费率水平为3.81‰~4.19‰,中风险区费率水平为2.51‰~3.81‰,低风险区费率水平为2.48‰~2.51‰。因此,应在掌握内蒙古各盟市森林火灾风险等级的基础上,根据风险分区差别厘定各盟市森林火灾保险费率水平;同时,加快构建以政府为引导,林业部门与保险机构协作的数据共享平台和森林保险费率水平动态调整机制。

⑴Background——The problems of unitary rate determination,lack of regional division of risk and low level of security restrict the high-quality development of forest insurance.Regional division of risk and differential rate determination of forest insurance in a smaller region has become the key problem to be solved in the development of forest insurance.⑵Methods——The evaluation indexes of regional division of forest fire risk mainly include forest fire disaster data index,forest fire risk data index and forest resource data index.Among them,the forest fire disaster data index includes the number of forest fires,the fire area,the affected area and the expenditure for fighting fire,the forest fire risk data index includes average temperature,average relative humidity and average precipitation,and the forest resource data index includes relative forest coverage rate and forest resource share rate.The research data came from“Forestry and Grassland Disasters Statistics in Inner Mongolia(2000—2022)”,the forest resources inventory data provided by Forestry and Grassland Administration of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,and“Inner Mongolia Statistical Yearbook(2000—2022)”.The classification of risk levels and estimation of differential rates of forest fire insurance in Inner Mongolia were discussed by using cluster analysis method and exponential smoothing method.⑶Results——According to the results of regional division of forest fire risk level,the forest fire risk level in Inner Mongolia can be divided into three levels,namely high risk regions,medium risk regions and low risk regions.The high risk regions include Hulunbuir City and Hinggan League,the medium risk regions include Hohhot City,Tongliao City,Baotou City,Chifeng City,Erdos City,Xilin Gol League and Ulanqab City,and the low risk regions include Wuhai City,Bayannur City and Alxa League.The forest fire risk level is affected by many factors such as the forest resources area,the occurrence of fires and the climatic conditions in the league or city where it is located.The more abundant forest resources and the more frequent fires occur in the region,the higher the fire risk level.Therefore,each league and city should take forest fire prevention measures according to its forest resources area,fires occurrence and climate conditions,and establish forest fire monitoring system to reduce the harm of forest fires to forest resources.The results of estimating the forest fire insurance rate of the leagues and cities in Inner Mongolia by using exponential smoothing method show that the region with the highest forest fire insurance rate is Hulunbuir City,which is 4.19‰,and the lowest forest fire insurance rate is 2.48‰in Wuhai City.Combined with the results of regional division of forest fire risk level,the forest fire insurance rate in high risk regions should range from 3.81‰to 4.19‰,the forest fire insurance rate in medium risk regions should range from 2.51‰to 3.81‰,and the forest fire insurance rate in low risk regions should range from 2.48‰to 2.51‰.The estimated result is significantly different from the current level of forest fire insurance rate in Inner Mongolia,and higher than the current level of forest fire insurance rate 2.25‰.⑷Conclusions and Discussions——On one hand,establish a data sharing platform dominated by the government for collaboration between the forestry departments and insurance institutions based on the principle of sustainable development of forest insurance,and formulate the data usage principles to provide data support for the determination of forest insurance rates.On the other hand,establish the dynamic adjustment mechanism of forest insurance rate level.Define the forest risk levels of each league and city in Inner Mongolia scientifically on the basis of the sharing of forest disaster data and insurance payment data.Determine the forest insurance rate level differentially and adjust the forest insurance rates dynamically according to the change of the insurance participation rates.