4种典型人口空间化产品精度的比较评价

Comparative assessment of the accuracy of four typical gridded population datasets in China

人口作为社会经济的重要指标,对城市韧性及可持续发展研究具有重要意义。国内外研究团队利用多源地理遥感数据已然研制了不同的全球人口空间化的数据产品。然而,受限于真实人口统计调查数据的长周期性和人口分布空间的复杂性,现有产品对于模拟国家级人口空间分布的实际准确度并未得到充分验证。本研究利用不同年份的人口普查数据与对应年份的现有4种人口空间数据集(GPW、Landscan、Worldpop、Cnpop)进行验证及评价。结果显示,4种不同人口产品对于模拟我国2010年和2015年区县级人口的总体精度均达到75%以上。其中,Worldpop和Cnpop数据产品对于模拟我国2010年的人口空间分布更精确,而Worldpop和Landscan产品对于模拟我国2015年的人口空间分布效果更优。同时,研究还发现,Worldpop数据产品对于模拟我国高密度人口地区,特别是城乡过渡带总体精度较高,即更加适宜于城市区域的相关研究。本研究为学界合理选择和使用不同人口空间化产品,以提高研究成果的精确度和针对性提供了重要参考。

As one of the most important socioeconomic indicators,population data is vital for urban resilience and urban sustainability studies.Based on multi-sourced geographical data,various gridded population datasets have been developed by several international teams.However,due to the long-term periodicity of demographic surveying data as well as the uneven distributions of population in regions of China,the overall accuracy of existing population datasets in simulating the real population distributions at a national level in China has not been fully assessed and verified.The purpose of this study is thus to comprehensively validate and evaluate the accuracy of existing gridded population datasets based on the census data at different times.Among them,the verified products include four mainstreaming gridded population datasets,including GPW,Landscan,Worldpop and Cnpop developed by the Chinese Academy of Sciences.The results show that the overall accuracies of the four different population products in simulating the distribution of population in China at years 2010 and 2015 are above 75%.Among them,the Worldpop and Cnpop data products are more accurate in simulating the distribution of population in China at year 2010,while Worldpop and Landscan products perform better in acquiring the distribution of population at year 2015.Meanwhile,the study also found that the Worldpop product has higher overall accuracy in simulating the population of high-density urban areas in China,like urban-rural transition zones,indicating that the Worldpop might be suitable for the studies in large cities with more high-density urban areas.The findings and results could provide an important guide for the community to reasonably select and utilize different gridded population products,and thus avoid unnecessary errors and improve the accuracy and pertinence of related research.