基于知识元的“脏弹”袭击事件情景构建

Scenario Construction of“Dirty Bomb”Attack Incident Based on Knowledge Elements

“情景-应对”是针对非常规突发事件的一种应对模式,应用该模式可对非常规突发事件进行情景构建,并基于构建的事件情景来有效应对非常规突发事件的发生。采用情景构建中常用的知识元方法对“脏弹”袭击事件的情景要素进行了分析和提取,并以某国国家突发事件重要情景组与典型放射性袭击事件为例,对“脏弹”袭击事件进行了情景构建。所构建的情景能够清晰、准确地描述“脏弹”袭击事件,对此类事件的应急预案制定、演练场景设计以及救援处置行动决策等具有指导和参考作用。

“Scenario-response”is a response mode for unconventional emergencies,which can be used to construct scenarios for unconventional emergencies and effectively respond to unconventional emergencies based on the constructed event scenarios.With the commonly used knowledge elements methods in Scenario Construction,this paper analyzes and extracts the scenario elements of“dirty bomb”attacks,and constructs the scenarios of“dirty bomb”attacks by taking the major scenario group of national emergencies and typical radiological attacks in the United States as an example.The constructed scenarios can clearly and accurately describe“dirty bomb”attacks and be used as a guide and reference for the formulation of emergency plan,the design of emergency exercise scenario and the decision of rescue and disposal of such emergencies.