中国造纸产业国际竞争力与碳排放的脱钩效应研究

Study on Decoupling Effect between International Competitiveness and Carbon Emission of Chinese Paper Industry

剖析中国造纸产业国际竞争力与碳排放的脱钩效应,对推动我国造纸产业国际竞争力提升和资源节约、环境保护协调发展具有重要意义。本文选取显示性比较优势指数(RCA)作为衡量我国2006—2017年造纸产业国际竞争力的评价指标,并利用GM(1,1)模型对2018—2022年的国际竞争力进行预测,结果显示2006—2017年我国造纸产业国际竞争力虽然不断上升,但一直处于低位状态,与世界造纸强国相比差距较大;2018—2022年我国造纸产业国际竞争力会继续上升,将由中等比较优势转变为具有较强比较优势。然后,利用Tapio脱钩模型分析我国造纸产业国际竞争力与碳排放的脱钩效应。研究结果显示,除2008年和2017年外,从整体上来说,我国造纸产业国际竞争力和碳排放呈现出由弱脱钩向强脱钩转变的趋势,但2016—2017年呈现回落趋势,说明我国造纸产业还未实现碳减排的常态化。政府需要加强行业环境规制力度,同时加大对企业绿色创新的激励力度。

It is of great significance to analyze the decoupling effect between the international competitiveness of Chinese paper industry and carbon emissions,so as to promote the international competitiveness of Chinese paper industry as well as the coordinated development of resource conservation and environmental protection.This paper selects revealed comparative advantage(RCA)as an evaluation index to measure the international competitiveness of Chinese paper industry from 2006 to 2017,and uses GM(1,1)model to predict its international competitiveness from 2018 to 2022.Results are shown as follows.First of all,despite rise from 2006 to 2017,the international competitiveness of Chinese paper industry has been far lower than the world’s major countries with powerful paper industry.Besides,from 2018 to 2022,the international competitiveness of Chinese paper industry continued to rise,and a medium comparative advantage transformed to a strong comparative advantage.Then,the decoupling effect between the international competitiveness of Chinese paper industry and carbon emissions is analyzed by the Tapio decoupling model.The results show that,except in 2008 and 2017,the weak decoupling effect of the international competitiveness and carbon emissions of Chinese paper industry transformed to the strong decoupling one on the whole,yet it became weak in 2016-2017,indicating that Chinese paper industry has not normalized carbon emission reduction.The government thus needs to strengthen environmental regulations of the industry,and enhances the incentives for green innovation of enterprises at the same time.