中国电力消费与经济增长及结构调整相关性分析

Correlation analysis of China’s electricity consumption with economic growth and structural adjustment

随着经济发展和电气化程度加深,中国电力消费与经济增长相关关系的量化测度日益重要。基于面板向量自回归模型,构建了经济增长、电力消费和产业结构等方面的变量,检验了全国和江苏省电力消费和经济特征之间的长期均衡关系,并通过脉冲响应函数揭示电力消费和经济增长在受到不同类别的冲击时的长短期变化趋势。全国和江苏的电力消费、经济增长和产业结构升级趋势之间均呈现了跨期均衡关系,全国经济增长对电力消费的脉冲效应短期大,长期则弱化,江苏经济增长对电力消费冲击则更具持续性,反映出江苏经济发展、产业结构调整和电力生产消费之间的协调性。全国各区域的电力消费和生产应根据区域经济发展基础和程度,科学合理制定电力投资规划。

It is becoming more and more important to identify the correlation between electricity consumption and economic growth with the continuing electrification in China.It is constructed the Panel vector utoregression model and the impulse response function to identify economic growth,electricity consumption and structural change in China based on a provincial level panel data,in order to compare the difference of the correlation between the national level and Jiangsu province.There is a stable correlation between electricity and economic characteristics both nationwide and in Jiangsu.The national economic growth has a greater influence on electricity consumption in the short term and a weaker one in the long term,while there is a more consistent impact of economic growth and structural change on electricity consumption in Jiangsu,which reflects a more coordinated interaction between the electricity market and the economy and structure in Jiangsu.The difference of the correlation suggests that policy makers ought to make electricity investment plans according to the regional economic development level.