概率具有倾向性吗?——评波普尔对量子理论的实在论诠释

Is Probability Dispositional? Comments on Popper’s Realistic Interpretation of Quantum Theory

为了合理地解释集合中单个事件的客观概率,波普尔在对频率理论的修改基础上提出了概率的倾向性解释。在波普尔看来,哥本哈根诠释对量子理论的解释过于主观主义,为了维护科学实在论,必须破除量子理论的神秘性。于是,波普尔以概率的倾向性解释对量子理论做了科学哲学意义的实在论诠释。然而,波普尔对量子理论的实在论诠释存在诸多问题,它既混淆了量子力学与统计力学,夸大了其与哥本哈根学派之间的对立,同时也并没有解决所谓的单称概率问题,甚至波普尔还误解了量子理论的哥本哈根诠释。究其原因,这既与波普尔对量子理论的解释立场过于狭隘有关,也与他对量子理论的物理内涵理解不够准确有关,还与他将布尔逻辑规则应用于量子理论的非布尔逻辑空间有关,且最后一点是其中重要原因。

In order to reasonably explain the objective probability of a single event in the set,Popper proposed the propensity interpretation of probability based on the modification of frequency theory.Popper argued,Copenhagen interpretation of quantum theory is totally subjective.In order to maintain scientific realism,it is necessary to break the mystery of quantum theory.Therefore,Popper proposes a realistic interpretation of quantum theory in the sense of scientific philosophy with the propensity interpretation of probability.However,there are many problems in Popper’s realistic interpretation of quantum theory.It confuses quantum mechanics and statistical mechanics,and exaggerates its opposition with Copenhagen school.At the same time,it can’t solve the problem of singular probability,and even misunderstands the Copenhagen interpretation of quantum theory.Having explored the root causes,we believe that it is not only related to Popper’s narrow interpretation of quantum theory,but also related to his inaccurate understanding of the physical implication of quantum theory.Moreover,his application of Boolean logic rules to the non-Boolean logic space of quantum theory is also an important reason.