水资源非农化与粮食生产脆弱性

Impact of Non-Agriculturization of Water Resources on Vulnerability of Grain Production

在测度粮食生产脆弱性的基础上,利用2006—2021年中国省级面板数据实证检验了水资源非农化对粮食生产脆弱性的影响及其门槛效应。结果表明:水资源非农化会加剧粮食生产脆弱性,但呈现边际效应递减的非线性特征;从功能区与南北方异质性来看,水资源非农化会加剧非主产区和南方地区粮食生产脆弱性,而对主产区和北方地区的影响不显著;水资源非农化对粮食生产脆弱性的影响存在单一门槛效应,跨过门槛值后,水资源非农化对粮食生产脆弱性的影响显著降低。因此,在因地制宜提高农业用水效率及保障能力的同时,应不断夯实粮食生产基础,通过生产技术革新和制度优化等方式,增强粮食生产韧性,弥补农业用水转移引致的生产损失。

On the basis of measuring the vulnerability of grain production,this paper empirically tested the impact of the non-agriculturization of water resources on the vulnerability of grain production and its threshold effect using the panel data of Chinese provincial level from 2006 to 2021.The results show that:(1)the non-agriculturization can exacerbate the vulnerability and presents a non-linear feature of diminishing marginal effect;(2)From the perspective of functional areas and north-south heterogeneity,the non-agriculturization in non-main grain production areas can exacerbate the vulnerability of grain production,while the impact in the main production areas is not significant;the non-agriculturization in the southern region can exacerbate the vulnerability,while the impact in the northern region is not significant;(3)the non-agriculturization has a single threshold effect on the vulnerability,and the effect decreases significantly after exceeding the threshold.Therefore,we should improve the agricultural water efficiency and support capacity by adjusting measures according to the local conditions.It is also necessary to continuously consolidate the foundation of grain production and enhance the resilience of grain production through technology innovation and institutional optimization,and make up for the production loss caused by the transfer of agricultural water use.