区域科技创新的波动周期、分布动态与空间差异研究

Study on the Fluctuation Cycle,Distribution Dynamics and Spatial Difference of Regional S&T Innovation in China

本文从过程-结构-时序维度构建科技创新评价指标体系,根据2001—2021年中国区域面板数据,运用合成指数法计算得到八大综合经济区科技创新景气指数,以此为研究对象,结合物理学波的特征分析全国及八大综合经济区科技创新的波动性与周期性,再采用Kernel估计和Dagum基尼系数及其分解法方法刻画全国及八大经济区科技创新的动态分布特征与差异性。研究发现:观测期内全国以及八大综合经济区科技创新波动周期呈现非对称性特征,东中部与东南部科技创新水平明显优于东北与西北经济区;近20年来全国及八大综合经济区科技创新水平波动变化经历了多个不同长度的中短周期,周期特征具有异质性;各区域科技创新水平的动态演进特征差异较大,但区域内创新水平较低的省份具有追赶的态势,同时随着空间滞后类型的变化,“俱乐部收敛”现象愈发突出,科技创新等级锁定效应加强,难以实现越级跳跃;全国及八大综合经济区科技创新水平整体差异表现出明显地下降趋势,但区域间差异具有扩大的走势。本文的研究价值是不同经济区科技创新波动状况各异,在激发经济区科技创新活力时应因地制宜、精准施策,为促进不同经济区间科技创新的协同发展与质量提升提供量化依据。

This paper constructs an evaluation index system of science and technology(S&T)innovation from three dimensions named as process-structure-time series.Based on the regional panel data of China from 2001 to 2021,the S&T innovation boom index of China s eight comprehensive economic zones is calculated by the composite index method.Taking it as the research object,we analyze the volatility and periodicity of S&T innovation in the whole country and eight comprehensive economic zones by combining the characteristics of physical waves.Kernel estimation and Dagum Gini coefficient and its decomposition method were used to describe the dynamic distribution characteristics and differences of S&T innovation in the whole country and eight economic zones.The results show that the fluctuation cycle of S&T innovation in the whole country and the eight comprehensive economic zones presents asymmetric characteristics during the observation period.The level of S&T innovation in the east-central and southeast is obviously better than that in the northeast and northwest economic zones.In recent 20 years,the fluctuation of S&T innovation level in the whole country and the eight comprehensive economic zones show kinds of cycle lengths,and the cycle characteristics are heterogeneous.The dynamic evolution characteristics of the level of S&T innovation in different regions are quite different,but the provinces with low level of S&T innovation in the region have a catch-up trend.Meanwhile,with the change of spatial lag type,the phenomenon of“club convergence”becomes more and more prominent,and the locking effect of S&T innovation level is strengthened,which makes the areas difficultly to realize leapfrog.The overall difference of S&T innovation level in the whole country and the eight comprehensive economic zones showed an obvious downward trend,but the difference between regions showed an expanding trend.The research value showed that the fluctuation of S&T innovation in different economic zones varies.Therefore,local conditions should be adapted to stimulate the vitality of S&T innovation in economic zones.Precise policies should be taken to provide quantitative basis for promoting the coordinated development and quality improvement of S&T innovation in different economic zones.