粤港澳大湾区科技创新发展的动态演进、趋势预测与影响因素研究

Research on the Dynamic Evolution,Trend Forecast and Influencing Factors of Scientific and Technological Innovation Development in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

本文基于国家知识产权局专利检索系统手工爬取的2000—2020年城市层面的发明专利授权额数据,从时间和空间、静态和动态等多个维度分析粤港澳大湾区科技创新发展的分布动态演进及其发展趋势,并对其影响因素进行深入探讨。研究发现:①深圳和广州在粤港澳大湾区科技创新发展中发挥核心引领作用,不同都市圈科技创新发展水平分化明显;②发展总体呈现上升趋势,绝对差距有所增大,相对差距缩小状况尚不明显,具有分散化的区域集聚特征;③发展的正空间相关性明显降低,同时空间溢出性逐渐减弱,发展呈现俱乐部收敛特征;④多种因素共同影响粤港澳大湾区科技创新发展格局的动态演进,物质资本投入是其最为关键的动力来源,它与其他影响因素有效结合会对粤港澳大湾区科技创新发展发挥更大驱动作用。

Based on the data of invention patent grants at the city level from 2000 to 2020 manually crawled by the Patent Retrieval System of the State Intellectual Property Office,this paper analyzes the dynamic evolution of the distribution of technological innovation and development in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and its trend prediction from multiple dimensions such as time and space,static and dynamic,and then explores the influencing factors.The results show as follows.①Shenzhen and Guangzhou play a core leading role in the development of scientific and technological innovation,and development of scientific and technological innovation in different metropolitan areas is significantly differentiated.②The overall development trend is on the rise,the absolute gap has increased,and the relative gap has not been significantly reduced,with the characteristics of decentralized regional agglomeration.③The positive spatial correlation of development is significantly reduced,while the spatial spillover is gradually weakened,and the development shows the characteristics of club convergence.④A variety of factors jointly affect the dynamic evolution of the development pattern of scientific and technological innovation.Physical capital investment is the most critical source of power,and its effective combination with other factors will play a greater driving role in the development of scientific and technological innovation in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area.