中国居民收入流动性的新趋向研究

Research on New Trends of Income Mobility of Chinese Residents

文章利用中国家庭追踪调查2010~2018年数据,系统研究了中国居民收入流动性程度、方向、趋势、合意性及影响因素。研究发现,从绝对收入流动指标来看,中国居民收入流动性整体呈下降趋势,在考察期内下降30.68%;从流动性质量来看,考察期内向上流动大于向下流动,总体上是合意的。收入流动能够促进收入均等化,但其作用随时间逐渐降低。结构分解表明,在增长、分布、交换三类流动中,交换流动对总流动性的贡献最大,决定着总流动性的变化;增长流动次之,分布流动最小。子群分解表明,低收入群体的流动性对总体流动性贡献最大,中等群体次之,但均呈下降趋势,而高收入群体流动性最低,地位趋于固化。家庭人力资本、社会资本量、体制内就业、工资性收入比重均有利于居民向上流动;城镇居民和东部地区居民向上流动的可能性相对较高;期初收入较高或家庭规模较大的居民向上流动的可能性较小。

This paper uses data of the CFPS to study the income mobility of Chinese residents,and explores the mobility degree,direction,trend,desirability and influencing factors.The research results indicate that the overall income mobility of Chinese residents measured by absolute income mobility indicators shows a downward trend,with a decrease of 30.68%during the inspection period.The quality of national income mobility is generally satisfactory,as the upward mobility is greater than the downward mobility.Income mobility can promote income equalization,but its role gradually decreases.Structural decomposition shows that among the three types of mobilities,exchange mobility has the greatest contribution to total mobility and determines the magnitude of changes in total mobility,followed by growth mobility and distribution mobility.Subgroup decomposition shows that the mobility of low-income groups contributes the most to overall mobility,followed by the middle-income group,but they both show a downward trend.The mobility of high-income groups is the lowest and tends to solidify.The analysis shows that family human capital,employment within the state-owned sector,social capital,the share of wage income,urban and eastern residence are all conducive to upward mobility of residents,while the factors such as initial income and family size increase tend to inhibit upward mobility of residents.