养老脆弱性对农村空巢老人养老策略的影响——基于安徽农村追踪调查的分析

The Impact of Old-Age Support Vulnerability on Livelihood Strategy of Rural Empty-Nesters:Evidence from the Longitudinal Survey in Anhui Province

受社会变迁与个体生命周期风险累积的影响,农村空巢老人养老脆弱性日益凸显,进而影响其养老策略的实施。关注农村空巢老人如何养老,是保障其福祉的关键所在。文章使用2015、2018和2021年“安徽省农村老年人福利状况”追踪调查数据,系统分析了农村空巢老人的养老脆弱性与养老策略现状、动态变化趋势,并采用面板多项Logit模型检验了养老脆弱性变动对养老策略调整变化的影响。研究发现:老年人的养老脆弱性随着年龄增长缓慢提高,家庭养老仍是当前农村空巢老人的主要养老策略;随着年龄的推移和养老脆弱性的上升,农村空巢老人更倾向于选择家庭或平衡型养老策略。基于此,文章认为应推动农村空巢老人养老供给的多元化,着重强化家庭养老的基础性地位,同时要增强养老服务供给的多阶段性和针对性。

Along with the rapid social change and individuals'life-time accumulation of health deterioration,the old-age support vulnerability become increasingly prominent in rural areas,especially among the empty-nesters.Using the longitudinal data from"The Well-being of the Rural Elderly in Anhui Province"Project in 2015,2018,and 2021,this study examines the vulnerability and old-age support strategies of rural empty-nesters and explores their dynamics.We use Panel Logit model to test the impact of old-age support vulnerability on rural empty-nesters'livelihood strategies.The results show that the empty-nesters'vulnerability increases significantly over time.While the family-support type keeps dominant in the old-age support strategies of rural empty-nesters,self-support strategy decreases and social-support strategy increases over time.As the vulnerability goes up along aging,the rural empty-nesters are more likely to adopt the family-support strategy.The final remark is made on the importance of promoting the diversification of rural empty-nesters'support system,and enhancing the multi-stage and pertinence of the supply of old-age services.