人口老龄化时代中国城市居民储蓄率的决定及其含义

The Determinants and Implications of Savings Rate of Chinese Urban Residents in the Era of Population Aging

人口老龄化进程加速发展是未来相当长一段时期中国经济发展的重要特征,也是基本的约束条件。本文利用住户层面的微观数据,分析了人口老龄化对中国城市居民储蓄率的影响路径。实证结果表明,养老保险制度所决定的养老金财富对城市居民储蓄率具有显著影响:家庭养老金财富与当期收入的比值每增长1个单位,城市居民储蓄率约减少1.13~1.51个百分点,养老金财富较之其他跨期收入,对储蓄率最具解释力。而且,高龄队列较之年轻队列,养老金财富对储蓄率的影响更明显。这意味着随着人口老龄化程度的加剧,储蓄率的下降也更明显。养老金财富取决于养老保险制度的设计。通过分析最近两次职工养老保险制度改革对城市居民储蓄率的影响,本文发现,养老保险制度改革一旦改变了城市居民的养老金财富预期,也会对其储蓄率产生显著影响。考虑到中国经济增长模式从高储蓄、高投资的模式向全要素生产率推动的转变是一个长期的过程,在人口老龄化进程加速的情况下,坚持社会保障制度保基本、广覆盖的原则和改革方向,有助于避免储蓄率过快下降。

The acceleration of population ageing has already characterized the Chinese economy and will continue to be one of the fundamental constraints of economic development in the future.Utilizing the data from urban house-hold surveys,this paper explores the channels of how population ageing affects savings rate of Chinese urban resi-dents.The regression results show that an increase of one unit in the ratio of pension wealth to current income would decrease the savings rate of Chinese urban residents by about 1.13%to 1.51%.Among intertemporal incomes,pen-sion wealth explains the most variation of savings rate.In addition,in response to savings rate with respect to pension wealth,the aged cohorts are more responsive than their younger counterpart.The amount of pension wealth is deter-mined by the institution of pension system.After examining the last two rounds of reforms on pension system,the change of pension wealth caused by reforms can affect the savings rate of urban residents.Considering that it takes time for China to transform its growth pattern from the one characterized by high savings and high investments to the one driven by TFP growth,to avoid rapid decrease of savings rate,China must stick to the principle in pension system of supporting the very basic needs with comprehensive coverage.