发达国家标准下我国中等收入群体规模及成长路径

THE SIZE AND GROWTH PATH OF CHINESE MIDDLE-INCOME GROUP UNDER THE STANDARDS OF DEVELOPED COUNTRIES

扩大中等收入群体是推动实现共同富裕的应有之义。本文使用“欧盟28国2018年收入中位数的60%与200%”作为界定中等收入群体的上下限,从国际视角分析了我国中等收入群体的规模及成长路径。研究发现,我国中等收入群体规模增长迅速,从2002年的不到1%增长到2018年的24.7%,人数约相当于欧盟所有国家中等收入群体人数总和、美国当年总人口。与几个大型中等收入国家相比,近20年唯有我国的中等收入群体比重一直保持高速增长。与发达国家相比,我国中等收入群体比重仍偏低,还处于“人均GDP”与“中等收入群体比重”双低的爬坡阶段。不同户籍类型的人群成为中等收入者的路径明显不同,户籍类型、父母的就业和受教育水平、出生地等个人无法控制的出生背景,对一个人成为中等收入者的概率有较大影响。未来应尤为关注那些出生背景不利者,为他们进入中等收入行列提供畅通渠道和适当支持。

Enlarging the size of middle-income group is the proper meaning of promoting common prosperity.This paper uses 60%and 200%of the median income of 28 EU countries as the lower and upper cutoffs to define Chinese middle-income group and analyzes its size and growth path from an international perspective.The results show that the size of middle-income group in China has grown rapidly,from less than 1%in 2002 to 24.7%in 2018,and its number is similar to the total number of middle-income group in 28 EU countries and similar to the total population of the United States in that year.In the past 20 years,among several major middle-income countries,only the size of middle-income group in China has maintained rapid growth.Compared with developed countries,the proportion of middle-income group in China is still low,and it is still in the climbing stage of"GDP per capita"and"the proportion of middle-income group".The birth background beyond personal control,such as Hukou type,parents'employment and education level,and place of birth,has a significant impact on a person's probability of being middle-income group.In the future,we should pay special attention to those who are born in disadvantaged backgrounds and provide them with smooth channels to enter the middle-income group.