传染病预测模型的应用及研究进展

Application of prediction model for infectious diseases and progress of research

近年来新发突发传染病疫情不断出现,严重急性呼吸综合征、高致病性禽流感(Influenza in birds)、甲型H1N1流感(Influenza A)、埃博拉疫情(Ebola virus)、中东呼吸综合征、新型冠状病毒感染(COVID-19)等公共卫生事件的不断发生对人类健康和社会、经济的发展造成了严重的危害,对公共卫生领域造成了严重威胁,传染病预测模型在疫情防控中发挥着重要作用,主要应用于疫情发展传播趋势的预测、不同防控措施效果的评价、疫情风险预警以及疾病的日常监测等方面,对疫情精准防控、快速遏制起到重要作用。但目前预测模型在疫情数据的处理、场景的适用性、以及模型的准确性等方面还存在一些局限性,应增加与其他科目的交叉为流行病学发展提供新的思路。

In recent years,new and sudden outbreaks of infectious diseases have emerged,such as severe acute respiratory syndrome,influenza in birds,influenza A,ebola virus,middle east respiratory syndrome,and corona virus disease 19(COVID-19).The continuous occurrence of public health events has caused serious harm to human health and social and economic development,posing a serious threat to the public health field.Infectious disease prediction models play an important role in epidemic prevention and control,mainly used to predict the trend of epidemic development and spread and evaluate the effect of different prevention and control measures The early warning of epidemic risks and daily monitoring of diseases play an important role in precise prevention and control of the epidemic and rapid containment.However,there are still some limitations in the processing of epidemic data,the applicability of scenarios,and accuracy of prediction models.It is necessary to increase the intersection with other subjects to provide new ideas for the development of epidemiology.