东盟中心地位何以存续——基于组织生态学的视角

The Viability of ASEAN Centrality:A Research Based on the Perspective of Organizational Ecology

东盟中心地位的存续是近年来政策界和学界共同关注的重要议题。既有研究多认为东盟在区域合作中的中心地位正经受严峻挑战,面临被削弱甚至消解的风险。作者采用组织生态学的系统化视角,借助SWOT分析模型,在组织形态与组织环境复合维度下阐释东盟中心地位的存续机制,结合生态位概念对东盟中心地位的基础进行再考察,为该问题提供了一种新的解释路径。根据组织环境演化与生态位竞争的逻辑,东盟自身组织形态以及东亚区域合作环境赋予的有利因素建构着东盟的生态位宽度,组织形态中的劣势与环境中的威胁制约着东盟在区域合作环境中的适应度,两类因素共同决定东盟中心地位的存续机制。通过描绘东亚区域合作环境,提炼东盟的结构特征,对东盟在制度和互动层面的中心地位展开多维分析得出,东盟作为通才组织在“粗粒度”的东亚区域合作环境中具有更强的适应性,在同其他主体之间的生态位竞争中也更具优势,东盟中心地位的基础依然稳固。尽管面临复杂的内外压力,但通过巩固并强化其生态位优势,推动东亚区域合作环境向更加协同共生的方向演进,东盟将继续保持其中心性并在区域合作中发挥关键性作用。

The viability of ASEAN centrality has been an important issue of concern for both policy and academic circles in recent years.Most of the existing studies believe that ASEAN centrality is experiencing severe challenges and facing the risk of being weakened or even dissolved.This research adopts a systematic perspective of organizational ecology and uses a SWOT analysis model to explain the logic of the viability of ASEAN centrality in the dimensions of organizational form and organizational environment,and reexamines the basis of ASEAN centrality with the concept of niche,providing a new way to explain this problem.According to the logic of organizational environment evolution and niche competition,ASEAN's niche width is constructed by its own organizational form and the favorable factors endowed by the East Asia regional cooperation environment,and the adaptability of ASEAN in the regional cooperation environment is restricted by the disadvantages in organizational form and the threats in the environment.These compound factors jointly determine the viability of ASEAN centrality.The multidimensional analysis of ASEAN centrality at the institutional and interactive levels by mapping the East Asian regional cooperation environment and extracting its structural characteristics shows that ASEAN,as a‘Generalist'organization,is more adaptable in the‘Coarse-Grained'East Asian regional cooperation environment and has more advantages in the competition with other actors in terms of niche.The foundation of ASEAN centrality remains solid.Despite the complex internal and external pressures,ASEAN will continue to maintain its centrality and play a key role in regional cooperation by consolidating and strengthening its niche advantages and promoting the evolution of the regional cooperation environment in East Asia towards a more collaborative and symbiotic direction.