政党、国家能力与经济兴衰——来自东亚与东南亚经济体的启示

Political Parties,State Capacity,and Economic Boom and Bust:Evidence from East Asian and Southeast Asian Economies

政党对国家兴衰发挥着重要作用。基于国家能力的视角,作者建立了政党领导力与国家经济兴衰的理论分析框架,并利用东亚与东南亚经济体的长期历史数据检验了相关理论假说。研究结果显示,政党领导力与宏观经济的持续平稳运行存在显著的因果关系。政党领导力的增强显著提高了东亚和东南亚地区相关经济体的短期和长期经济增长率,减少了经济衰退的风险和经济危机发生的概率。具有强大领导力的政党通过严密的组织与本国民众建立了密切联系,以高效融入本国社会的方式推动国家与社会之间形成良性互动,显著提升了国家的资源动员能力。政党通过不断完善政党制度对党内成员进行约束并强化党内协调以降低政策被特定群体俘获的可能性,确保政策目标的一致性和连续性,增强本国政府对国家总体资源的配置能力与使用能力。政党领导力是东亚和东南亚经济体的国家能力提升的重要影响因素之一,为解释和理解东亚与东南亚经济体何以能创造“经济奇迹”提供了新的视角,也为加强执政党建设何以能提升国家能力提供了理论解释。

Political parties play an important role in the rise and fall of states,but the impact of political parties on national economies and their mechanisms of action have not been systematically discussed so far.The authors establish a theoretical analysis framework on the political parties'leadership and the rise and fall of national economies based on a new perspective of state capacity,and empirically test the theoretical hypotheses using long-term historical data for East Asian and Southeast Asian economies.The results show that there is a significant causal relationship between political parties'leadership and sustained smooth macroeconomic performance,which significantly increases the short-and long-term economic growth rates and reduces the risk of recession and the probability of crises in East Asian and Southeast Asian economies.Political parties with strong leadership build close ties with their populations through tight organization,integrate more efficiently into society and promote positive interaction between the state and society,significantly enhancing the country's ability to mobilize resources;they will constrain members and strengthen coordination among members by improving the party system,reduce the possibility of policies being captured by specific groups,ensure the consistency and continuity of policy goals,and improve the country's overall resource allocation and use capabilities.Political parties leadership is one of the important influencing factors for the improvement of state capacity in East Asian and Southeast Asian economies,laying an important foundation for the rise of East Asian economies.The research in this paper provides a new perspective to explain the economic miracle of East Asia;it also provides a theoretical explanation for how strengthening the ruling party can enhance national capacity.