2000~2020年河南省人口老龄化程度时空演进分析

Analyzing the Temporal and Spatial Evolution of Population Aging Degree in Henan Province from 2000 to 2020

目的:分析河南省2000~2020年人口老龄化程度时空演进,为河南省人口发展战略规划提供参考依据。方法:选取2000、2010和2020年河南省老龄化系数、人口老少比、劳动年龄人口占比等反映人口老龄化程度的指标,运用熵值法构建各地市老龄化程度综合指数,采用GeoDa1.20软件进行全局和局部空间相关性分析。结果:2000~2020年,河南省人口老龄化程度加剧,且老龄化程度综合指数Moran’s I值由0.356降至0.249,呈现空间正相关性;高-高集聚区主要分布在豫中和豫南地区,范围逐渐缩小,低-低集聚区主要分布在豫北,由北部向西部扩散,增长显著。结论:河南省老龄化程度加深,给不同地区间健康养供需资源配置带来巨大挑战;河南省老龄化程度存在空间正相关性,根据老龄化进展程度差异应合理规划健康养老产业;河南省老龄化程度存在区域差异,高-高集聚区建议加大养老资源投入合理配置养老资源,低-低集聚区建议依托自身地域优势,因地制宜发展健康养老产业。

Objective To analyze the spatial-temporal evolution of population aging in Henan Province from 2000 to 2020,and provide a reference for the strategic planning of population development in Henan Province.Methods The coefficient of aging,ratio of population to young and old and the proportion of working-age population were selected to construct the comprehensive in⁃dex of the degree of aging in 2000,2010 and 2020 by using the entropy method.GeoDa1.20 software was used to analyze the global and local spatial correlation.Results The degree of population aging in Henan Province changed from adult to senile society from 2000 to 2020.In terms of spatial distribution,the values of Moran’s I in Henan Province decreased from 0.356 to 0.249,showing a positive spatial correlation.The high-high agglomeration areas were mainly distributed in central Henan and southern Henan,and the ranges were gradually reduced.The low-low agglomeration areas were mainly distributed in northern Henan,spreading from the north to the west with a significant increase.Conclusion The deepening degree of aging in Henan Province brings great challenges to the allocation of health supply and demand resources among different regions.There is a positive spatial correlation of the degree of aging in Henan Province.The health pension industry should be reasonably planned according to the difference of ag⁃ing progress.There has regional different degree of aging in Henan Province,from which investment of pension resources should be increased in the high-high agglomeration area,and the health pension industry should be developed according to local conditions based on its own regional advantages in low-low agglomeration area.