广东省东江流域降雨时空变化特征分析

Analysis of Temporal and Spatial Variation Characteristics of Rainfall in Dongjiang River Basin within Guangdong Province

在人类活动和气候变化的复杂影响下,广东省东江流域的降雨特征发生了明显改变,为精准识别其时空变化特征,基于流域34个雨量站1956—2021年逐月长序列降雨数据,采用集中度、集中期、Ordinary Least Square回归法、Mann-Kendall检验法、滑动t检验法、一维连续小波等多种方法,对广东省东江流域上下游降雨的年内分布特征,年际变化的趋势性、突变性和周期性特征以及空间变化规律开展多角度分析。结果表明:广东省东江流域降雨量从东北向西南递减;从上游到下游,年内降雨集中期从6月延迟到7月份,降雨由减少过渡到弱增长趋势;下游突变性较上游显著,上游周期性强于下游;上下游降雨主周期一致,均为17 a。研究成果可为广东省东江流域降雨预报及水资源开发利用等提供支撑。

Under the complex influence of human activities and climate change,the rainfall characteristics of Dongjiang River Basin have changed significantly in recent 66 years.In order to accurately identify the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of multi-year rainfall in Dongjiang River Basin,based on the monthly long-series rainfall data of Dongjiang River Basin,the annual distribution characteristics of rainfall in Dongjiang River Basin,the trend,mutation and periodic characteristics and the spatial variation law were analyzed from multiple angles by using various methods such as concentration degree,concentration period,OLS regression method,Mann-Kendall method,sliding T test method and one-dimensional continuous wavelet.The results show that the rainfall in Dongjiang River Basin decreases from northeast to southwest;From upstream to downstream,the rainfall concentration period is postponed from June to July,and the trend of rainfall changes from decreasing to weak increasing.The mutation of downstream rainfall is more significant than that of upstream,and the cycle period of upstream rainfall is stronger than that of downstream.The main cycle period of upstream and downstream rainfall is the same,and 17a is the main cycle of basin rainfall.The research results could provide support for related research such as rainfall forecast and water resources development and utilization in Dongjiang River Basin.