义务教育阶段师资数量需求预测——基于生师比和班级规模的国际比较

A Forecast of the Demand for the Quantity of Teachers in Compulsory Education:An International Comparison Based on the Student-Teacher Ratio and the Class Size

基于国内和经济合作与发展组织面板数据追踪,对义务教育师资数量核定的关键要素——生师比和班级规模进行国际比较发现,我国义务教育阶段生师比高于欧盟国家平均水平,班级规模远超经济合作与发展组织均值,仍有进一步优化的空间。瞄定教育强国目标,建议以城镇学校为主,分阶段有序缩减班级规模,力争到2035年小学班额缩减为25人、初中缩减为30人,同期小学生师比下降至13∶1以内、初中降至12∶1以内。以此为前提假设,基于对义务教育阶段学龄人口数量的预测,依据生师比和班师比测算2023—2035年我国义务教育阶段专任教师与教职工的数量需求,发现小学呈现先小幅增长后持续下滑,初中呈现波动起伏的趋势。结合同时期教师退休人数研判,师资数量需求盈缺振幅较大。为加快推进义务教育高质量发展,需要精准识别、择优供给,通过增量调控、存量盘活和质量提升,满足对师资供给“公平性”、“充足性”、“优质型”的长期诉求。

This study,based on the panel data from China and OECD(The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development)countries,makes an international comparison of the student-teacher ratios and the class sizes,which are the key factors determining the quantity of teachers in compulsory education.The findings show that China's student-teacher ratio exceeds the EU average,and that its class sizes significantly exceed the OECD average,indicating room for further optimization.The authors propose that to achieve the goal of becoming a powerful country in education,we should give a phased reduction of class sizes primarily in urban schools,by trying to reduce the class size in a primary school to 25 students,and the class size in a lower secondary school to 30 students,and maintain the student-teacher ratio below 13:1 in a primary school,and below 12:1 in a lower secondary school by 2035.Based on population projections for compulsory education-age cohorts,the study estimates the demand for full-time teachers and education personnel from 2021 to 2035 using student-teacher ratios and class-teacher ratios.The results indicate a slight increase followed by a sustained decline in the demand for primary school teachers,fluctuations in the demand for lower secondary school teachers,and sharp fluctuations in the demand for teachers according to the number of the teachers expected to retire during the same period.To accelerate the development of high-quality compulsory education,we need to accurately identify and selectively provide teaching resources.This can be achieved through incremental adjustments,activation of existing resources,and improvements in quality,thereby meeting the long-term demand for an"equitable,""adequate"and"high-quality"supply of teachers.