厘清“三驾马车”贡献推进中国经济稳健发展

Clarifying the Contribution of the“Three-in-Hand”to Promote the Steady Development of China's Economy

“三驾马车”各自对中国经济增长有着不同的拉动能力和实际效果,支出法对其难以准确核算。基于非竞争型投入产出模型,测算分析2002年以来国内最终消费、资本形成和出口这三大需求因素对中国不同时期GDP形成的拉动、对经济增长带来的效果与特征,可厘清“三驾马车”对入世以来中国经济的实际贡献。研究表明,长期以来内需一直是中国经济增长的主要动力,尤其是国内最终消费,已成为促进经济增长的重要引擎;消费的实际贡献在2008年以来稳步增强、保持领先,而投资和出口对中国第二产业的发展发挥着关键的支撑作用。扩大内需仍是中国经济未来中长期发展的重中之重,中国经济的稳健发展需要充分发挥消费对服务业、投资对制造业和建筑业的强大拉动力,需要注重在扩大消费和扩大投资的结合点上发力,同时,还要进一步扩大对外开放,以稳定出口对中国经济发展的促进作用。

Each of the“three-in-hand”has different pulling power and actual effect on China's economic growth,and the expenditure method is difficult to calculate accurately.On the basis of the non-competitive input-output model,this article calculates and analyzes the effects and characteristics of the three major demand factors(i.e.domestic final consumption,capital formation,and export)on China's GDP formation and economic growth in different periods since 2002,which can clarify the actual contribution of the“three-in-hand”to China's economy since its accession to the WTO.It can be shown from the study that domestic demand,especially domestic final consumption that has become an important engine to promote economic growth,has long been the main driving force of China's economic growth;the actual contribution of consumption has steadily strengthened and remained ahead since 2008,while investment and export play a key supporting role in the development of China's secondary industry.Expanding domestic demand remains the top priority in the medium and long term.It is required for the steady development of China's economy to give full play to the strong driving force of consumption on service industry and of investment on manufacturing and construction industry,to focus on the combination of expanding consumption and expanding investment,and meanwhile to further expand the opening up to the outside world to stabilize the role of export in promoting China's economic development.