低纬地区电离层闪烁发生概率预报模型研究

Occurrence probability prediction model of ionospheric scintillation for the low-latitude region

针对低频段星地链路论证设计对低纬地区电离层闪烁发生概率预报信息的需求,基于UHF频段和L频段电离层闪烁历史观测数据,分析给出低纬地区电离层闪烁随地方时、季节、纬度和太阳活动等的变化规律,突破电离层不均匀体强度CkL的概率分布函数建模关键技术,建立了适用于低纬地区的电离层闪烁发生概率预报模型.该模型可依据用户指定的星地链路收发位置、时间、太阳黑子数预测值、工作频率等条件,计算给出指定电离层闪烁S4指数或者电离层闪烁衰落深度的发生概率信息,为低频段星地链路余量设计、系统可用性分析等提供数据基础.

In the argumentation and design phase of low-band earth-satellite links,the occurrence probability prediction information of low-latitude ionospheric scintillations is needed to analyze link margin and system availability.Based on the historical observations of UHF-band and L band ionospheric scintillations,the variation characteristics of ionospheric scintillation occurrence with time,latitude,season and solar activity are presented in detail.After the key technology of probability distribution function(PDF)modeling of ionospheric irregularity intensity CkL is broken through,an occurrence probability prediction model of ionospheric scintillation for the low-latitude region is built.The occurrence probabilities of a specified ionospheric scintillation S4 index could be predicted by entering the positions of transmitter and receiver,time,the predicted sunspot number and signal frequencies,which could provide the essential data for the margin design and system availability analysis of low-band earth-satellite links.