产业结构调整与人力资本行业错配:缓解还是加剧?

Industrial Restructuring and Industrial Misallocation of Human Capital:Mitigation or Exacerbation?

产业结构调整与人力资本配置对推动经济高质量发展具有重要现实意义,本文实证分析2003-2020年中国人力资本行业配置态势及产业结构调整在其中作用效果。研究发现,人力资本行业错配程度总体下降,但生产性服务业、生活性服务业、工业制造业等人力资本配置不足,行政管理类行业、农林牧渔业人力资本冗余等错配问题仍然存在。产业结构调整对人力资本行业错配的作用效果呈现时间及地区异质性,且受调节变量影响:随着人力资本结构高级化水平、产业结构高级化程度、信息通达性提升,产业结构调整改善人力资本行业错配的积极效果显著增强;制度安排呈U型影响关系,在市场化水平较高或政府职能较完备地区产业结构调整改善效果最显著。此外,适度水平的产业结构调整其改善效果随其调整强度增大而显著增强,过于激烈改善作用难以发挥。

This paper empirically reveals the industrial misallocation of human capital in China from 2003 to 2020,and the effect of industrial restructuring in it.The results show:the industrial misallocation of human capital is improving on the whole,but the human capital in producer services,consumer services and industrial manufacturing is insufficient,and in administrative industries,agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery is redundant.The effect of industrial restructuring on the industrial misallocation of human capital shows time heterogeneity and regional heterogeneity,and is affected by the moderating variables.With the improvement of human capital structure,industrial structure and information accessibility,the positive effect of industrial restructuring on the industrial misallocation of human capital is significantly enhanced.The institution makes a U-shaped influence,where the positive effect is most significant in the regions with higher level of marketization or governance.In addition,the positive effect is significantly enhanced with the increase of restructuring intensity when the industrial restructuring is in a moderate range,but has no effect when the intensity is too intense.