双重价值链、空间溢出与制造业增长

Dual Value Chain,Spatial Spillovers and the Growth of Manufacturing Industry

基于中国区域间投入产出表和增加值核算框架,本文测算了中国省际地区参与双重价值链的程度,并构建国内价值链、全球价值链、市场化改革、交通网络等对制造业增长的空间影响的实证分析框架,考察产业间关联的空间溢出效应、溢出效应的异质性及动态演进过程。研究发现:参与国内价值链和全球价值链分工均促进了制造业增长,前者的空间溢出效应为正且存在地区的异质性,后者相反;参与双重价值链对低技术行业产出的促进作用高于其对高技术行业的作用,出口升级可促进本地制造业增长且空间溢出效应为正。进口投入占比直接降低本地制造业增长,且对低技术行业产出的负效应大于高技术行业;市场化改革、交通网络和资本劳动比例促进制造业增长。

Based on the input-output tables and value-added accounting framework in China,this article measures the degree of participation of provincial regions in dual value chains,and constructs an empirical analysis framework for the spatial impact of domestic value chains,global value chains,market-oriented reforms,transportation networks,and other factors on manufacturing growth.It examines the spatial spillover effects of inter industry correlations,the heterogeneity of spillover effects,and the dynamic evolution process.The results of Spatial dubin model show participation in the national value chains and global value chains promote the economic growth.The former has a significant positive spatial spillovers across neighboring provinces and spatial spillovers are heterogeneous in space,while the latter has a negative spatial spillovers.The participation in dual value chains has a bigger positive impact on industries with lower technical level than industries with higher technical level.And the updating of export can promote industrial growth in local provinces and spatial spillovers are positive.The proportion of import directly reduces the growth of local manufacturing industry and the negative effect on the output of low-tech industries is greater than that of high-tech industries.Market reforms,transportation network and ratio of capital-labor promote industrial growth.