中国大豆进口贸易影响因素研究——基于与中国大豆进口贸易排名前五国家的实证分析

Study on the Factors Influencing China's Soybean Import Trade——Empirical Analysis Based on the Top Five Countries with Which China Conducts Soybean Import Trade

文章基于2001—2020年联合国商品贸易统计数据库(UN Comtrade)的相关数据,分析了与我国大豆进口贸易排名前五的国家——巴西、美国、阿根廷、乌拉圭、俄罗斯的大豆产量、与我国贸易关系、政策制度,通过构建贸易引力模型定量探究其影响因素。结果表明,进口国的经济规模、人口数量、大豆产量等因素具有巨大差异,汇率对大豆的进口贸易额有显著影响;从需求角度来看,大豆进口数量会随中国经济规模增大而继续增长;从供给角度看,国外大豆的供给量取决于国外人口数量和国外大豆产量,这些都会对中国大豆进口贸易额产生明显影响。

Based on relevant data of the United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database from 2001 to 2020,this article tries to examine the soybean production,trade relations with China,and policy systems of the top five countries in soybean import trade with China,namely,Brazil,the United States,Argentina,Uruguay,and Russia,and explores its influencing factors by means of the trade gravity model.The research findings indicate that there are huge gaps in factors such as economic scale,population,and soybean production among importing countries,and the exchange rate exerts a significant impact on the trade volume of soybeans;From a demand perspective,the volume of soybean imports will continue to grow with the growth of China's economic scale;From a supply perspective,the supply of foreign soybeans depends on the number of populations and production capacity,which will both exert an important impact on the import trade volume of China's soybean.