农村交通基础设施与农村劳动力转移——基于中国家庭追踪调查数据的解释

Rural Transportation Infrastructure and Rural Labor Transfer:An Explanation Based on Chinese Household Tracking Survey Data

利用新经济地理学中核心-边缘(CP)模型,构建交通基础设施影响劳动力转移的理论分析框架,在此基础上运用中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)2010年和2014年两期面板数据进行实证估计。结果表明,农村交通基础设施的改善客观上产生了促进农民进城务工的效果,但也受到城乡收入差距因素的制约且存在较为明显的异质性特征,即只有当区域城乡收入差距较大且超过一定门限值时,这一作用才呈现正向的促进效果;反之,则有可能阻碍农村劳动力向城市转移。同时探究城乡收入差距各子维度对劳动力转移的不同影响效应,通过关键维度识别,更细致地解释了交通基础设施对农村劳动力转移的异质性影响。最后,根据所得结论提出了相应的政策建议。

This paper uses the Core-Periphery model of new economic geography to construct a theoretical analysis mechanism of transportation infrastructure affecting labor transfer,and makes an empirical estimation based on Chinese household tracking survey data.Results show that the improvement of rural transportation infrastructure objectively encourages farmers to work in cities,but it is restricted by factors involved in the urban-rural income gap.There are also obvious heterogeneous characteristics,in that this effect shows a positive promotion effect only when the regional urban-rural income gap is large and exceeds a certain threshold.At the same time,it may become an inhibitory force hindering the transfer of rural labor force to cities.This paper also explores the different effects of each sub-dimension of the urban-rural income gap on labor transfer,and provides a detailed explanation for the heterogeneity of the impact of transportation infrastructure on rural labor transfer by identifying the key dimensions.Finally,the paper s conclusions provide a basis for the policy suggestions it makes.