贸易政策不确定性下降是否促进了城市创新?

Does the Decline in Trade Policy Uncertainty Promote Urban Innovation?

创新在中国现代化建设全局中居于核心地位,对增强中国综合国力意义非凡,其中城市创新是国家创新的重要组成部分。使用1998—2013年中国235个地级市的面板数据,以城市发明专利授权数作为衡量城市创新能力的指标,基于中国加入WTO后获得美国授予的永久正常贸易伙伴关系(PNTR)地位这一准自然实验框架,使用倍差法,研究了贸易政策不确定性下降对城市创新的影响。研究结果发现:(1)贸易政策不确定性下降对城市创新有显著的促进作用;(2)从影响机制来看,出口规模扩张和产业结构优化是贸易政策不确定性下降促进城市创新的重要渠道;(3)相较于内陆城市而言,沿海城市的创新能力受到贸易政策不确定性下降的促进作用更大。在经过稳健性检验后,以上结论依然成立。研究结论对于中国深化创新驱动发展战略具有重要作用。

Innovation is an important part of China s strategy and is crucial to enhance China s comprehensive national strength,with urban innovation being the mainstay of national innovation.Using panel data from 235 prefecture-level cities in China from 1998 to 2013,this paper uses the number of urban invention patent authorizations as an indicator to measure urban innovation capacity.Then,based on the quasi-natural experimental framework of China s accession to the WTO and permanent PNTR status granted by the United States,it uses the multiplier method to study the impact of trade policy uncertainty on urban innovation.The study finds the following:(1)That the decline in trade policy uncertainty has a significant promotional effect on urban innovation.(2)From the impact mechanism perspective,both export scale expansion and industrial structure optimization are important channels for trade policy uncertainty to promote urban innovation.(3)In comparison with inland cities,the innovation capacity of coastal cities is better promoted by the decline in trade policy uncertainty.These results remain valid after the robustness test,and the above research conclusions have an important role to play in deepening China s innovation-driven development strategy.