家庭收入与生育水平研究——基于CHFS的实证分析

Family Income and Fertility Level:Empirical Research Based on CHFS

在生育水平持续下降的趋势下,根据2019年中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)数据和Probit二元回归方法,对不同家庭收入水平的生育状况进行实证分析,研究收入增加对微观家庭生育水平的影响,从微观视角探讨收入补贴型生育支持政策效果。研究认为:收入与家庭生育水平整体呈弱的正相关性,收入增加无法显著提高微观家庭生育水平;经济发展和收入增长会造成生育水平的长期持续降低,低生育问题不能依靠经济发展和收入增加自发解决;收入补贴型生育支持政策可以缓解社会生育水平下滑,但有效提振社会生育水平需要更加有力、全面、系统的综合解决方案。根据研究结果提出应当加快生育政策的全面转型、制定差异化补贴标准、探索生育支持政策的一揽子解决方案。

Under the background of the declining fertility level,according to the data of the 2019 China Household Financial Survey(CHFS)and the binary regression method,this paper makes an empirical analysis on the fertility status under different income levels,studies the impact of income increase on the family fertility level,and discusses the effect of the government's subsidy policies to boost the fertility level.The research shows that:first,there is a weak positive correlation between income and family fertility level as a whole,and the increase of income can not significantly improve the micro-family fertility level;second,economic development and income growth will lead to a long-term and sustained decline in fertility level,and the problem of low fertility cannot be solved spontaneously by economic development and income increase;third,income subsidy can alleviate the decline of social fertility level,but effectively boosting social fertility level needs a more powerful,comprehensive and systematic solution.The relevant policy recommendations are put forward:accelerating the transition of childbirth policy,formulating differentiated subsidy standards and exploring fertility support policies.