基于PMC指数模型的我国退耕还林还草专项政策量化评价

Quantitative Evaluation of China's Specific Policies on Returning Farmland to Forest and Grassland Based on the Index of PMC Model

文中在梳理我国现行的退耕还林还草政策文件的基础上,借助Python软件并通过构建PMC指数模型对我国6份退耕还林还草专项政策文件进行量化评价。结果发现:1)2000-2008年我国退耕还林还草政策文件年均发布数量快速增加,这一时期发布的现行有效的政策文件占总有效文件的66.67%;2009-2020年政策文件年均发布量的变化相对较小,退耕还林还草政策体系逐渐健全成熟。2)依据PMC指数结果,将所选择的6份政策文件划分为完美、优秀、良好和可接受4个等级。其中,完美等级政策1份,优秀和良好等级分别为2份和3份。政策总体水平处在优秀等级,政策设计较为合理。3)对单项政策而言,有效的工作着力点能显著提高政策得分等级。此外,对政策的适时修订,多样化的政策措施和明确的政策目标可提高政策评分等级。4)现行政策内容突出了退耕还林还草的生态效益,而对工程的经济效益、科技创新主体的作用和价值的重视程度相对欠缺。据此,提出以下3条建议:1)退耕还林还草政策的制定应明确工作抓手,综合考虑退耕还林还草的生态、经济和社会效益;2)对政策内容进行适时调整;3)综合运用人事任免、财税支持、行政监管和信息引导等多种政策措施,并注意退耕还林还草的实际效果,量化政策目标。

Based on the review of the current policies on farmland conversion to forest and grassland in China,the paper uses Python software and PMC index model to conduct the quantitative evaluation of 6 specific policies on the conversion in China.The results show that:1)The annual average number of policies released for the conversion increased rapidly from 2000 to 2008 in China,and the currently effective policies issued during this period account for 66.67%of the total number of effective policies.From 2009 to 2020,there were small changes in the annual average number of policy released,and the policy system for the conversion has gradually got improved and come to mature;2)According to the results of PMC index,the policies selected for evaluation can be categorized into four grades:perfect,excellent,good and acceptable,among which there are 1 policies in perfect grade,2 policies in excellent grade and 3 policies in acceptable grade,respectively.In the sense,the policies are overall at an excellent level,and reasonably designed;3)For any policy,setting effective focus and goals can significantly improve the evaluation level of policy;and 4)The policies are more focused on the ecological benefits of the conversion program than the economic benefits,and pay less attention to the role and value of scientific and technological innovation.In view of the above results,it is suggested that the policy of returning farmland to forest and grassland should be made clear and the ecological,economic and social benefits should be considered comprehensively.The policy content should be timely adjusted.We should comprehensively consider various policy measures such as personnel appointment and removal,fiscal and tax support,administrative supervision and information guidance,pay attention to the actual effect of returning farmland to forest and grassland,and quantify the policy objectives.