基于实证调查的新疆地区地质灾害易发性和危险性评价研究

SUSCEPTIBILITY AND RISK ASSESSMENT OF GEOLOGICAL DISASTERS IN XINJIANG BASED ON EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION

新疆是丝绸之路经济带的核心区,其孕灾地质环境条件与我国中东部地区存在较大差异性,是全国受地质灾害影响较严重省区之一。面对新疆地区面积大和特殊的孕灾地质环境条件,先将全疆划分为4个区域开展易发性和危险性评价工作,并选取局部高差、坡度、地貌类型、工程地质岩组、平均温度、平均降雨量、归一化植被指数(NDVI)以及雪线分布等评价指标因子,通过证据权模型对新疆地区地质灾害易发性进行评价,并在地质灾害易发性评价基础上叠加最大降雨量作为地质灾害危险性诱发因素,最后通过专家打分矩阵分析法对全疆地质灾害危险性进行评价。研究结果表明:全疆共划分为8个地质灾害高易发区和极高危险区,主要分布在准噶尔西部山地、阿尔泰山、伊犁谷地山区、天山北麓、吐哈盆地、天山南麓、南疆西部天山、西昆仑山以及东昆仑山等地区;以全疆17362处地质灾害点为样本数据,经验证共有96.16%灾害点分布在高、中、低易发区;以全疆2011~2022年发生的336起地质灾害点为样本数据,经验证共有326起地质灾害分布在极高、高、中危险区,占比达到97.02%。研究结果可为新疆地区最大程度降低地质灾害风险提供科学依据,也可为其他省级区域开展地质灾害易发性和危险性评价工作提供重要参考。

Xinjiang is the core area of the Silk Road Economic Belt.Its geological hazard-prone environmental conditions differ significantly from those of the central and eastern regions of China,making it one of the provinces with severe geological hazard impact in the country.This article focuses on the large area and special geological hazard-prone environmental conditions of Xinjiang,divides the whole region into four areas for the assessment of hazard susceptibility and danger.Evaluation indicators such as local elevation difference,slope,terrain type,engineering geology lithology,average temperature,average rainfall,NDVI,and snowline distribution were selected,and an evidence weight model is used to evaluate the hazard susceptibility of the region.Based on the assessment of hazard susceptibility,the maximum rainfall is added as a geological hazard danger-inducing factor.The hazard danger of the entire region is evaluated through the expert scoring matrix method.The research results show that the entire region is divided into eight high susceptibility and extremely high hazard geological disaster-prone areas,mainly distributed in the western part of the Junggar Mountain,Altai Mountain,Ili Valley Mountainous Area,the northern foothills of Tianshan Mountains,Tuha Basin,the southern foothills of Tianshan Mountains,Western Tianshan Mountains in southern Xinjiang,Western Kunlun Mountains,and Eastern Kunlun Mountains,etc.Based on the sample data of geological disaster points in the whole region,it is verified that 96.16%of the disaster points are distributed in high,medium,and low susceptibility areas.Based on the sample data of 336 geological disasters that occurred in Xinjiang from 2011 to 2022,it was verified that 326 geological disasters are distributed in extremely high,high and medium danger areas,accounting for a ratio of 97.02%.The research results can provide a scientific basis for minimizing geological hazard risks to the greatest extent in Xinjiang,and also provide important technical references for other provincial-level regions to carry out susceptibility and risk assessments of geological disasters.