岱海流域水环境承载力综合评价

Comprehensive Evaluation of Water Environment Carrying Capacity in Daihai Basin

本文以岱海流域为研究区域,采用AHP—熵权法、系统动力学模型与耦合协调度模型,对该流域2018年的水环境承载力进行综合评价,并预测至2025年的情况。结果表明,2018年岱海流域水环境承载力处于红色巨警状态,水环境与经济社会的耦合协调度为极度失调状态。设置4种情景方案对2019—2025年进行模拟,结果显示各方面的指标均为最优,水环境承载力及耦合协调度相较于2018年均有显著提升。

This article takes the Daihai Basin as the research area,and uses the AHP entropy weight method,system dynamics model,and coupling coordination model to comprehensively evaluate the water environment carrying capacity of the basin in 2018,and predict it to 2025.The results indicate that in 2018,the carrying capacity of the water environment in the Daihai Basin was in a red alert state of overload,and the coupling coordination between the water environment and the economy and society was extremely imbalanced.Four scenario scenarios were set up for simulation from 2019 to 2025,and the results showed that the indicators in all aspects were optimal.The water environment carrying capacity and coupling coordination degree showed significant improvement compared to 2018.