长三角城市群城市韧性时空演变及障碍因子研究

Study on the spatial-temporal evolution and obstacle factors of urban resilience in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration

文章构建经济-社会-生态-设施四大维度的城市韧性评价指标体系,以长三角城市群41座地级及以上城市为研究对象,在利用改进熵值法测算2008—2021年长三角城市群城市韧性水平的基础上,运用核密度估计模型、空间自相关模型探究城市韧性的时空演化趋势,运用障碍度模型探究阻碍城市韧性发展的因素。研究主要结论如下:(1)研究期内长三角城市整体韧性持续增强,呈稳步增长的态势,但其内部的多数地级市处于中低水平,随时间推进逐渐形成“低低集聚—高高靠拢”的演化态势;(2)研究期内长三角城市整体韧性呈现出“东部沿海高,向西逐渐递减”的分布格局,长三角城市整体韧性具有空间正向自相关关系,但集聚差异程度不断扩大;(3)城市经济系统是长三角城市群未来一段时期的首要障碍系统,地方一般公共预算收入成为第一障碍因子,研究期内主要障碍因子由经济方面过渡到了经济-社会-生态-设施方面。

This paper constructs an evaluation index system of urban resilience in four dimensions of economy,society,ecology and facilities,and takes 41 cities at prefecture level and above in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration as the research object.On the basis of measuring the urban resilience level of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration from 2008 to 2021,using the improved entropy method,the Kernel density estimation model and spatial autocorrelation model are used to explore the spatio-temporal evolution trend of urban resilience,exploring the factors hindering the resilient development of cities using an obstacle model.The main conclusions of the study are as follows:(1)During the study period,the overall resilience of the cities in the Yangtze River Delta continued to increase,showing a steady growth trend,but most of its internal prefecture-level city were in the middle low level,and gradually formed the evolution trend of“low low agglomeration,and high convergence”over time;(2)During the research period,the overall resilience of cities in the Yangtze River Delta showed a distribution pattern of“high in the eastern coast and gradually decreasing towards the west”.The overall resilience of cities in the Yangtze River Delta had a spatial positive autocorrelation relationship,but the degree of agglomeration differences continued to expand;(3)The urban economic system is the primary obstacle system of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration in the future.Local general public budgeting income has become the first obstacle factor.During the study period,the main obstacle factor has transited from economic to economy,society,ecology and facilities.