中国天然气产业政策的特征、效力与协同研究——基于2004—2022年政策文本的量化分析

Research on the Characteristics,Effectiveness and Coordination of China’s Natural Gas Industry Policy:A Quantitative Analysis Based on the Policy Documents from 2004 to 2022

天然气作为低碳清洁能源,对实现中国“双碳”目标具有重要支撑作用。国家相继出台和发布了一系列促进天然气产业发展的政策和规划。收集了2004—2022年中国国家层面天然气产业政策文本,从政策力度、政策措施与政策目标3个维度构建了政策量化标准,并对天然气产业政策效力与协同度进行量化分析。研究结果表明:中国天然气产业政策存在明显的周期性,五年计划中后期政策数量和效力相对较高;政策措施与目标的周期性波动是导致政策效力呈周期性的根本原因,政策力度平均得分偏低是制约政策平均效力上升的重要原因;行政措施、技术措施在中国天然气产业政策中运用较为广泛,但与金融措施及其他经济措施协同度有待进一步提升;天然气产业政策目标间协同度不均衡且呈下降趋势。基于研究结果,提出了加强中国天然气产业政策的系统性和战略性建设、加大非常规天然气的规模化开发、充分利用市场机制作用、逐步优化政策目标协同度4个方面的建议。为推进天然气产业高质量发展,建设清洁低碳安全的能源体系提供参考。

Natural gas,a clean,low-carbon energy source,is crucial to helping China achieve its“double carbon”objectives.China has produced and promulgated a number of policies and measures to aid in the expansion of the natural gas industry.Three dimensions of policy strength,policy measures,and policy objectives were used to construct the policy quantitative standards,and a quantitative analysis of the effectiveness and degree of coordination of the natural gas industry policies was carried out using the policy texts of China’s natural gas industry from 2004 to 2022.The findings of the study demonstrate that China’s natural gas policy has a clear periodicity:the quantity and efficacy of policies throughout the middle and latter parts of the Five-Year Plan are comparatively high.The primary reason for the cyclical nature of policy effectiveness is the periodic variation in policy measures and aims.An significant factor limiting the rise in average policy effectiveness is the low average policy intensity score.Although administrative and technical measures are commonly used in China’s natural gas industry policy,there is still potential for development in the degree of integration with financial and other economic measures.Synergy between the policy objectives of the natural gas industry is unbalanced and on the decline.Four recommendations are made based on the research findings:improving the systematic and strategic construction of China’s natural gas industry policy,expanding the large-scale development of unconventional natural gas,fully utilizing the market mechanism,and gradually enhancing the degree of policy objective coordination.These suggestions should hopefully aid in fostering the natural gas industry’s high-quality development and building a sustainable future.