基于信息扩散理论的气象灾害风险分析方法研究

由于传统方法在气象灾害风险分析实际应用中的分析结果与实际情况相关系数较低,提出基于信息扩散理论的气象灾害风险分析方法。选取致灾危险性、承灾体脆弱性、承灾体暴露性以及区域防灾抗灾能力作为气象灾害风险因子,利用信息扩散理论对气象灾害风险因子数据信息进行集值化处理,扩大样本数据容量,利用评价函数对气象灾害风险定性分析,确定气象灾害等级。经实验证明,设计方法分析结果与实际情况相关系数平均值为0.97,分析结果具有较高的可信度,在气象灾害风险分析方面具有良好的应用前景,能够为气象灾害风险分析提供有力的理论支撑,有助于提高应对气象灾害的能力,避免遭受更大的经济损失。

Because the correlation coefficient between the analysis results and the actual situation is low in the practical application of traditional methods in meteorological disaster risk analysis,a meteorological disaster risk analysis method based on information diffusion theory is proposed.The disaster risk,the vulnerability of the disaster bearing body,the exposure of the disaster bearing body and the regional disaster prevention and resistance ability are selected as the meteorological disaster risk factors,and the data information of the meteorological disaster risk factors is processed in a centralized manner by using the information diffusion theory,so as to expand the sample data capacity,and the meteorological disaster risk is qualitatively analyzed by using the evaluation function to determine the meteorological disaster level.The experimental results show that the average value of correlation coefficient between the analysis results of the design method and the actual situation is 0.97.The analysis results have high reliability and good application prospects in the risk analysis of meteorological disasters,which can provide strong theoretical support for the risk analysis of meteorological disasters,help to improve the ability to cope with meteorological disasters and avoid greater economic losses.