基于APSIM模型的不同施氮处理下青贮玉米产量模拟及其敏感性分析

Simulation of Silage Maize Yield and Sensitivity Analysis under Different Nitrogen Application Treatments Based on APSIM Model

氮是限制青贮玉米增产潜力的重要因素,而氮肥的合理施用是青贮玉米提效增产的有效措施。以河西甘肃华瑞站点2021—2022年青贮玉米试验数据对APSIM模型进行参数率定和验证,结合敏感性分析探讨施氮处理对青贮玉米的增产效应。结果表明,根据APSIM模型模拟青贮玉米在河西地区的生长、发育、产量的生成当中具有较好适应性;结合敏感气候分析,基于不同的施氮条件,模拟敏感参数为生育期平均温度,其变化对模拟结果有较大影响。所有施氮处理下N2(607.5 kg/hm^(2),节氮10%)产量最佳。研究结果可为该地区农业生产管理措施的制定提供一定的科学依据。

Nitrogen is an important factor to limit the yield potential of silage corn,and the rational use of nitrogen fertilizer is an effective measure to increase the yield of silage corn.In this paper,the parameters of APSIM model were calibrated and verified with the silage corn test data from 2021 to 2022 at Gansu Huarui Station in Hexi,Gansu,and the effect of nitrogen application on the yield of silage corn was discussed with sensitivity analysis.The results showed that the simulated silage corn based on the model had good adaptability in the growth,development and yield generation of Hexi region.Combined with the sensitive climate analysis,based on different nitrogen application conditions,the simulation sensitive parameter was the annual average temperature,and its change degree had a great impact on the simulation results.The yield of N2(607.5 kg/hm^(2),nitrogen saving 10%) reached the best under all nitrogen application treatments.The research results provided a certain scientific basis for the formulation of agricultural production management measures in the region.