突发公共卫生事件引致中国居民消费结构的新变化:逻辑机理与实证检验

The New Changes of Chinese Residents’Consumption Structure Caused by Public Health Emergencies:Logical Mechanism and Empirical Test

突发公共卫生事件会对居民消费产生影响,导致居民消费结构出现变动,消费降级趋势明显,文章不仅从现象层面捕捉到这一变动事实,并对其传导渠道进行了理论探究及实证检验,结果表明:第一,收入是消费结构变化的决定性因素,疫情降低了居民收入,直接致使发展型消费支出下降,在生存型消费支出无法降低的同时,发展型消费支出的边际消费倾向下降进一步降低了这一支出,两方面作用叠加带来了居民消费降级趋势。第二,对绝大多数省份而言,受疫情影响,2020年居民发展型消费支出的实际值在总量和占比方面均明显低于预测值10个百分点左右,生存型消费支出的实际值高于预测值5个百分点左右,疫情带来的这种消费降级趋势在中西部的中高收入地区更为严重。第三,疫情冲击造成多数行业尤其是服务型行业对社会就业吸纳能力的下降,从而导致收入降低,这种影响在东部的高收入地区尤为强烈。文章通过对疫情背景下居民消费结构变动的逻辑机理的探讨,弥补了重大突发公共卫生事件冲击下对居民消费问题研究的不足,也为中国在后疫情时期如何依托消费推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长提供了一定借鉴。

Sudden public health emergencies have an impact on residents’consumption,leading to changes in residents’consumption structure and a clear trend of consumption degradation.This article not only captures this change from a phenomenal perspective,but also conducts theoretical exploration and empirical testing of its transmission channels.The results show that:Firstly,income is the decisive factor for changes in consumption structure,and the epidemic has reduced residents’income,directly leading to a decrease in development oriented consumption expenditure.While survival oriented consumer spending cannot be reduced,the decline in marginal consumption propensity of development oriented consumer spending further reduces development oriented expenditure.The combination of the two factors has led to a downward trend in household consumption.Secondly,for the vast majority of provinces,due to the impact of the epidemic,the actual value and proportion of residents’development oriented consumption expenditure in 2020 were significantly lower than the predicted value by about 10 percentage points,while the actual value of survival oriented consumption expenditure was higher than the predicted value by about 5 percentage points.The downward trend of consumption caused by the epidemic is more severe in middle and high income areas in the central and western regions.Thirdly,the mechanism is that the impact of the epidemic has led to a decrease in the ability of most industries,especially service-oriented industries,to absorb social employment,resulting in a decrease in income.This impact is particularly strong in high-income areas in the east.This article explores the logical mechanism of changes in residents’consumption structure under the background of the epidemic,making up for the lack of research on residents’consumption issues under the impact of major public health emergencies.It also provides a certain reference for China to rely on consumption to promote economic improvement in quality and reasonable growth in quantity in the post epidemic period.