经济政策不确定性对中国OFDI的影响研究

Research on the Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on China's Out Foreign Direct Investment

从母国和东道国视角分析经济政策不确定性(EPU)对中国对外直接投资(OFDI)的影响机制,利用2007-2019年跨国面板数据采用系统广义矩估计方法进行实证研究。研究结果表明:(1)尽管存在消极影响,但由于企业规避投资风险和政府利好政策,国内(母国)经济不确定性上升促进中国OFDI;东道国经济不确定性上升主要通过失业、利率和OFDI风险途径抑制对该国的OFDI。(2)母国和东道国经济不确定性对我国OFDI影响效应因对外投资动机存在差异。

This paper analyzes the impact mechanism of economic policy uncertainty(EPU)on China's Out foreign direct investment(OFDI)from the perspectives of home and host countries,and to conduct an empirical study using the method of systematic generalized moment estimation based on the cross-country panel data from 2007 to 2019.The research results show that:(1)Despite the negative impact,domestic EPU(home country)promotes my country's OFDI due to enterprises avoiding investment risks and favorable government policies;the rise of host country's EPU mainly suppresses OFDI to the country through reducing the unemployment,interest rates and avoiding OFDI risks.(3)The effect of EPU on my country's OFDI varies due to investmentmotives.