自由贸易协定深度对中国制造业出口竞争力的影响

The Impact of the Free Trade Agreements Depth on the Competitiveness of China's Manufacturing Industry Exports

文章基于中国已签署的自由贸易协定(FTAs),利用2000~2018年增加值贸易数据,从FTAs水平深度和垂直深度双重视角实证检验了自由贸易协定深度对中国制造业出口竞争力的影响。研究结果表明,FTAs深度的提升能提高中国制造业的出口竞争力,且相较于垂直深度,水平深度的作用效果更加明显,在一系列稳健性检验与内生性问题处理后该结论依然成立;异质性分析发现,FTAs深度对制造业出口竞争力的影响因制造业类型和出口目的国(地区)类型不同而具有异质性;机制分析表明,FTAs深度可通过降低贸易成本和促进外商直接投资提升制造业出口竞争力。进一步的反事实模拟表明,加入不同的区域贸易协定均会提升中国制造业出口竞争力,且对资本密集型制造业出口竞争力的提升效果最强,其次是技术密集型制造业,最后是劳动密集型制造业;与中国是否加入区域贸易协定的预测结果相比,区域贸易协定水平深度对制造业整体以及分类型制造业出口竞争力的影响效果更加显著。

Based on the signed free trade agreements(FTAs)in China,this paper empirically examines the effect of the depth of FTAs on the export competitiveness of China's manufacturing industry from the dual perspective of the horizontal and vertical depth of FTAs using value-added trade data from 2000 to 2018.The results shows that the improvement of FTAs depth can improve the export competitiveness of China's manufacturing industry,and the effect of horizontal depth is more obvious than that of vertical depth,and the conclusion still holds after a series of robustness tests and addressing endogeneity issues;the heterogeneity analysis finds that the effect of the depth of FTAs on the export competitiveness of manufacturing industry is heterogeneous depending on the type of manufacturing industry and the type of export destination country(region);mechanism analysis shows that the depth of FTAs can enhance manufacturing export competitiveness by reducing trade costs and promoting foreign direct investment(FDI).Further counterfactual simulations show that joining different regional trade agreements will improve China's manufacturing export competitiveness,and have the strongest effect on the export competitiveness of capital-intensive manufacturing industries,followed by technology-intensive manufacturing industries,and finally labor-intensive manufacturing industries;compared with the predicted results of whether China joins RTAs or not,the effect of RTAs horizontal depth on the export competitiveness of manufacturing industries and sub-types of manufacturing industries is more significant.